Michael Darda
Michael Darda
change data economic expected fed funds interest minutes moves outlook raise rate released unless
The minutes didn't change the outlook for the interest rate moves priced into the market. The Fed is expected to raise the funds rate at least two more times unless economic data is released that will change this assumption.
action additional create disruptive downward drive fed financial inflation likely metals move precious pressure prices rates renewed sharp
Such action could create a sharp upward move in inflation expectations, additional upward pressure on precious metals prices and renewed downward pressure on the dollar, ... If that were to happen, the Fed likely would have to drive rates up much more in the future, which could be disruptive to financial markets.
fed funds huge looking market moves plateau rate talking
The market is higher, but we're not talking huge moves here. The market is looking at a plateau in the fed funds rate at or around 5%.
boxed fed inflation moving rates
Inflation has boxed the Fed in, they are going to have to keep moving rates up.
bond low market relative ridiculous stock whereas
The bond market is at a ridiculous valuation, whereas the stock valuation is low relative to bonds.
above economy-and-economics positive potential
There's the potential for a positive surprise. But anything around or above 200,000 is a positive for the economy.
although great month trend
It was a great report, although one month does not a trend make.
pause percent saying
Essentially, he's saying that they may pause around 5 percent after the May meeting.
based demand future happen near supplies
A significant part of demand right now is based on speculation that something is going to happen in the future or near future to make supplies much more scarce.
change context economic monetary overall policy risks talking within
There's no real change in the rhetoric. He's talking about risks to economic growth, but within the overall context that monetary policy can respond.
economic growth inflation obviously strong
This is obviously a continuation of what we've been seeing, which is strong economic growth and inflation expectations.
attention best bottom companies line pay rather
The bottom line is that it's best to look at what the companies are actually doing rather than pay too much attention to what they're saying.
bottom ceos financial line officers pitfalls sound worrying
This is a sound contradiction because CEOs should be the visionaries and CFOs should be the bottom line worrywarts, ... Financial officers should be worrying about all of the costs, the pitfalls and the risks.
anywhere cause close depended market miss negative recent
If we get anywhere close to the forecast, its going to be negative for bonds, cause that market has depended on a miss on payrolls in recent months.