Michael Carliner
Michael Carliner
beginnings effect immediate lock lower people rate sales start unusual
It's not unusual when you first start to see the beginnings of a rate increase, that the immediate effect is an acceleration of sales as people try to lock in the lower rates,
areas building divert effect hit key produce wood
It's going to divert some key materials. It's going to have an effect on building elsewhere. A lot of the areas that were hit are areas that produce wood products.
bound effect event homes huge hurricane materials overstate worse
I don't want to overstate it but this is such a huge event it's bound to have a big effect on many construction materials and other construction costs. This is 10 times worse than Hurricane Andrew, when 28,000 homes were destroyed.
homes supply
Excluding homes that haven't been started, the months' supply is historically low.
expected
We had expected to see a slowdown, and this confirms it.
last saying says
Basically, that's saying that it's unchanged. We were doing well, not as well as last year, but we're doing well, and this says we're still doing well,
clean difficult house livable
With clean water, if you submerge a house for a week, it's not going to be livable anymore. It would be very difficult to get those contaminants out of the houses.
bought buyers home last money next prices saved
When prices go up, buyers say, 'Look how much money I would have saved if I bought last year, and if I don't buy now, I won't be able a new home next year,'
buying fear later panic
It's not so much profiteering as panic buying out of fear there will be shortages later on.
biggest factor levels material raw record
The biggest factor (in raw material costs) is we're at record levels of residential construction.
home increases predicting price slow
We had been predicting home price increases would slow down. Now they won't slow as quickly.
additional both demand forward process repair
We're going to have a lot of additional demand for materials, both in the cleanup process and the repair process and going forward in rebuilding.
although andrew assessment beyond destroyed dwarf estimated flooded homes housing hurricane number official orleans previous
Although there's no official assessment yet, I think the number of housing units destroyed is going to dwarf any previous disaster. Hurricane Andrew was estimated at 28,000 homes destroyed. The number of homes that are flooded now, that are probably beyond repair, is probably much larger. There are 200,000 homes in New Orleans alone.
builders buy enthusiasm evidence high market national pricing seen serve share trying
There may have been a little over-enthusiasm trying to serve the high end previously, but we haven't seen any evidence the high end is having problems. We have also seen some national builders trying to buy market share by pricing more aggressively.