Michael Blythe
Michael Blythe
becomes caution consumer depend extent labor large market persistent theme whether
Whether or not this consumer caution becomes a persistent theme in 2006 will depend to a large extent on labor market trends.
again borrowing business economic growth investment looks ongoing pointing strong support
Business borrowing had another strong month, pointing to ongoing investment growth. Investment again looks set to support economic growth this quarter.
bottom building data housing mild near sector
Building approvals have been volatile, but with this bounce, and other data like housing credit, it does look like the housing sector is near bottom after a very mild downturn.
inflation lower per rate risks toleration
Policymaker's toleration for inflation risks must be lower when the inflation rate is bumping around 3% per annum,
bank course currency growth medicine monetary moving picking rather reserve showing sideways signs slowing suggest time wages
Signs of slowing growth and wages moving sideways rather than picking up, and of course the currency showing some signs of life, suggest that the Reserve Bank has probably administered enough monetary medicine for the time being.
anytime bank global growth likely move oil rates side
It's on the side of the ledger for a tightening bias. But with uncertainty about global growth and oil prices, the bank isn't likely to move rates anytime soon.
antidote australian best caution consumer domestic economic good labor major market outcomes outlook risk shaping
Consumer caution was shaping up as the major domestic risk to the Australian economic outlook in 2006. Good labor market outcomes were always going to be the best antidote to this caution.
caution consumer drag housing overall persists remains sector services weak
Consumer caution persists and a weak housing sector remains a drag on overall services sector activity.
alive central employment inflation keeps risks strong wage
Strong employment keeps alive the risks to wage inflation and the central bank's concerns.
economy gears half hard hurry outlook says second several stepped
It's confirmation the economy stepped down several gears in the second half of 2005. It is hard to be too pessimistic for the outlook for 2006, but it is one of those indicators that says there is no hurry to do anything on rates.
consumer continues exports housing investment replaced slowing spending stronger theme
We are getting the investment we need to see. It continues the theme of rebalancing in the economy: slowing consumer spending and housing being replaced with stronger exports and investment.
consumer continues exports housing investment replaced slowing spending stronger theme
We are getting the investment we need to see, ... It continues the theme of rebalancing in the economy: slowing consumer spending and housing being replaced with stronger exports and investment.
beat building bump cost created effect fall july last looks minute months previous pumped rush took
There were new building regulations there that took effect from July 1 which are going to bump up the cost of new houses. It looks like there was a last minute rush to beat that which pumped up previous months and created this pothole for us to fall into in July,
interest likely outcome rates
The most likely outcome is that interest rates will rise.