Michael Blythe
Michael Blythe
consumer continues exports housing investment replaced slowing spending stronger theme
We are getting the investment we need to see. It continues the theme of rebalancing in the economy: slowing consumer spending and housing being replaced with stronger exports and investment.
consumer continues exports housing investment replaced slowing spending stronger theme
We are getting the investment we need to see, ... It continues the theme of rebalancing in the economy: slowing consumer spending and housing being replaced with stronger exports and investment.
inflation lower per rate risks toleration
Policymaker's toleration for inflation risks must be lower when the inflation rate is bumping around 3% per annum,
again borrowing business economic growth investment looks ongoing pointing strong support
Business borrowing had another strong month, pointing to ongoing investment growth. Investment again looks set to support economic growth this quarter.
bottom building data housing mild near sector
Building approvals have been volatile, but with this bounce, and other data like housing credit, it does look like the housing sector is near bottom after a very mild downturn.
bank course currency growth medicine monetary moving picking rather reserve showing sideways signs slowing suggest time wages
Signs of slowing growth and wages moving sideways rather than picking up, and of course the currency showing some signs of life, suggest that the Reserve Bank has probably administered enough monetary medicine for the time being.
australia coming expect flow labor market push risks tight wages
Some of the risks coming through in the labor market in Australia are still very tight and, ultimately, you would expect that to push up wages and then flow through to inflation.
becomes caution consumer depend extent labor large market persistent theme whether
Whether or not this consumer caution becomes a persistent theme in 2006 will depend to a large extent on labor market trends.
australian economy gears half last second several stepped
This is confirming that the Australian economy stepped down several gears in the second half of last year.
activity continued given head impressive improvement winds
The continued improvement in services-sector activity is particularly impressive given the head winds restraining the consumer-related sectors.
coming exports last signs
Clearly, exports are the disappointment. Signs that at long last the exports story was coming through, has pretty much disappeared with this release.
alive central employment inflation keeps risks strong wage
Strong employment keeps alive the risks to wage inflation and the central bank's concerns.
economy gears half hard hurry outlook says second several stepped
It's confirmation the economy stepped down several gears in the second half of 2005. It is hard to be too pessimistic for the outlook for 2006, but it is one of those indicators that says there is no hurry to do anything on rates.
anytime bank global growth likely move oil rates side
It's on the side of the ledger for a tightening bias. But with uncertainty about global growth and oil prices, the bank isn't likely to move rates anytime soon.