Michael Blythe
Michael Blythe
becomes caution consumer depend extent labor large market persistent theme whether
Whether or not this consumer caution becomes a persistent theme in 2006 will depend to a large extent on labor market trends.
consumer continues exports housing investment replaced slowing spending stronger theme
We are getting the investment we need to see. It continues the theme of rebalancing in the economy: slowing consumer spending and housing being replaced with stronger exports and investment.
consumer continues exports housing investment replaced slowing spending stronger theme
We are getting the investment we need to see, ... It continues the theme of rebalancing in the economy: slowing consumer spending and housing being replaced with stronger exports and investment.
australia coming expect flow labor market push risks tight wages
Some of the risks coming through in the labor market in Australia are still very tight and, ultimately, you would expect that to push up wages and then flow through to inflation.
anytime bank global growth likely move oil rates side
It's on the side of the ledger for a tightening bias. But with uncertainty about global growth and oil prices, the bank isn't likely to move rates anytime soon.
australian economy gears half last second several stepped
This is confirming that the Australian economy stepped down several gears in the second half of last year.
alive central employment inflation keeps risks strong wage
Strong employment keeps alive the risks to wage inflation and the central bank's concerns.
activity continued given head impressive improvement winds
The continued improvement in services-sector activity is particularly impressive given the head winds restraining the consumer-related sectors.
antidote australian best caution consumer domestic economic good labor major market outcomes outlook risk shaping
Consumer caution was shaping up as the major domestic risk to the Australian economic outlook in 2006. Good labor market outcomes were always going to be the best antidote to this caution.
caution consumer drag housing overall persists remains sector services weak
Consumer caution persists and a weak housing sector remains a drag on overall services sector activity.
economy gears half hard hurry outlook says second several stepped
It's confirmation the economy stepped down several gears in the second half of 2005. It is hard to be too pessimistic for the outlook for 2006, but it is one of those indicators that says there is no hurry to do anything on rates.
beat building bump cost created effect fall july last looks minute months previous pumped rush took
There were new building regulations there that took effect from July 1 which are going to bump up the cost of new houses. It looks like there was a last minute rush to beat that which pumped up previous months and created this pothole for us to fall into in July,
bank computing continuing difficult environment equipment household increases lower number obviously odds prices reserve resulted retail sit tools
A difficult retail environment resulted in significant discounting, so lower prices for clothing, household appliances, tools and computing equipment are possible. A low CPI number obviously increases the odds on the Reserve Bank continuing to sit on the sidelines.
interest likely outcome rates
The most likely outcome is that interest rates will rise.