Maury Harris
Maury Harris
Maury Harris is a managing director and chief economist for the Americas for UBS. Harris was named among the 2012 Bloomberg 50 Most Influential people in global finance...
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The contained job gains will make it easier for the Fed to convince investors that it will not rush to tighten. We still expect tightening to start only next August.
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Through the volatility, the trend in claims is gradually downward again, consistent with the labor market slowly starting to regain momentum after a setback in late 2002.
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You typically see a rebound in the labor force when the economy starts to recover. But because businesses are operating so much more efficiently, there's a limit to the number of jobs available. Unemployment could still go up a few ticks.
although average consumer couple despite earnings growth holding job market rather reasonably recent seeing spending spirits stock wages
We are seeing a 'soft landing' rather than a 'hard landing' in consumer spending for a couple of reasons. First, although job growth is slowing, wages are still rising, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% in October. Second, despite recent stock market turmoil, consumer spirits are holding up reasonably well.
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We believe that the Fed will require both consistent solid hiring and a rise in inflation before it begins to lift rates.
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What we do know is that the system manages to work -- we've been dealing with import penetration in this country for over three decades. Over that period of time, the unemployment rate has had its ups and downs, but there's been no trend increase in unemployment.
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Price pressures appear to be building at crude PPI levels, but the Fed will likely wait to respond until these pressures filter into the consumer price index. We do not expect that to occur until next year.
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We now estimate that total real consumption rose at a 6.5-percent annual rate in the third quarter as a whole, above the 5.5 percent we assumed when we raised our estimate for total real GDP growth to 5.5 percent from 4.5 percent.
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I think we're probably more adaptable now than we were in the past. Education is the key to that -- it makes you flexible.
add bond initial market reaction statement
Today's FOMC statement did not add any new specificity or much elaboration, and the initial reaction in the bond market has been limited.
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The bond market has been moving on two things today: the movement of stocks and this speculation about the yuan.
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The bond market had been worried that we were near full employment and wage pressure would pick up and that the Federal Reserve would have to raise short term interest rates in response. But now that the all important employment cost index was up just 0.6 percent, the Fed doesn't need to raise short term rates because the economy is slowing down.
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The consumer numbers look fairly strong, although at least some of that strength is likely to fade in coming months if housing continues to weaken. The mortgage applications data suggest home prices are already weakening.
adjusting average flat gauge hiring reliable retail sector suggest
Difficulties of seasonally adjusting the retail sector around year-end suggest that the two-month average -- about flat -- is a more reliable gauge of hiring trends.