Maury Harris
Maury Harris
Maury Harris is a managing director and chief economist for the Americas for UBS. Harris was named among the 2012 Bloomberg 50 Most Influential people in global finance...
claims consistent downward gradually labor late market momentum regain slowly starting trend
Through the volatility, the trend in claims is gradually downward again, consistent with the labor market slowly starting to regain momentum after a setback in late 2002.
believe fallout fed fixed greater income likely officials signal
Fed officials ... likely anticipated some fallout in fixed income markets. We believe ... that Fed officials wanted to signal a greater probability of tightening in 2004 than had been priced into markets.
above absence both clearly conditions consumers current early gains income notion owed previous remain troubled wartime worry year
Both current conditions and expectations remain above their wartime lows, but the reversal of previous gains undercuts the notion that the slowdown early this year owed only to geopolitical concerns. Consumers are clearly troubled by the absence of new hiring, and worry about income prospects.
adjusting average flat gauge hiring reliable retail sector suggest
Difficulties of seasonally adjusting the retail sector around year-end suggest that the two-month average -- about flat -- is a more reliable gauge of hiring trends.
above annual assumed estimate growth percent quarter raised rate rose third total
We now estimate that total real consumption rose at a 6.5-percent annual rate in the third quarter as a whole, above the 5.5 percent we assumed when we raised our estimate for total real GDP growth to 5.5 percent from 4.5 percent.
add bond initial market reaction statement
Today's FOMC statement did not add any new specificity or much elaboration, and the initial reaction in the bond market has been limited.
accounting add extra percent point strength total
With consumption accounting for about 70 percent of GDP, the extra strength should add about 0.7 point to total GDP growth.
additional cooling declines existing expect home housing including moderation overall recent result sales slowing
The recent declines in existing home sales corroborate the slowing in other housing-related data. We expect additional slowing in the housing market, including prices, in 2006. In turn, the cooling will probably result in a moderation in overall growth.
bond market movement moving stocks
The bond market has been moving on two things today: the movement of stocks and this speculation about the yuan.
bond cost economy employment federal full interest market near pick pressure raise rates reserve short slowing term wage worried
The bond market had been worried that we were near full employment and wage pressure would pick up and that the Federal Reserve would have to raise short term interest rates in response. But now that the all important employment cost index was up just 0.6 percent, the Fed doesn't need to raise short term rates because the economy is slowing down.
both continue continues data despite economic equity evidence markets playing recovery remains role
It remains unclear, of course, what role economic data really are playing in markets just now. Despite evidence that the recovery continues both in the U.S. and abroad, equity markets continue to struggle.
country dealing increase manages period rate system three trend ups work
What we do know is that the system manages to work -- we've been dealing with import penetration in this country for over three decades. Over that period of time, the unemployment rate has had its ups and downs, but there's been no trend increase in unemployment.
begins believe both consistent fed hiring inflation lift require rise solid
We believe that the Fed will require both consistent solid hiring and a rise in inflation before it begins to lift rates.
although average consumer couple despite earnings growth holding job market rather reasonably recent seeing spending spirits stock wages
We are seeing a 'soft landing' rather than a 'hard landing' in consumer spending for a couple of reasons. First, although job growth is slowing, wages are still rising, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% in October. Second, despite recent stock market turmoil, consumer spirits are holding up reasonably well.