Maureen Allyn
Maureen Allyn
apply caution headlines increasing job losses signs simply society wondering
What we're getting are increasing signs of caution on the part of consumer. You simply can't be in this society and read all the headlines about job losses going on without wondering if this is going to apply to you sometime.
bit bond concerned data fed growing market second
We're growing vigorously, and I think that the bond market is right to be a little bit concerned about this. It's not the data we've gotten, but the data we didn't get. We didn't get a slowdown in the second quarter. That, I think, is going to make the Fed very nervous.
heading hope huge investors months next rally recovery six towards worst
I think we are heading into the worst of it. Investors think there we're heading towards a recovery in the next six months and I hope that they are right, but I just don't see the valuations for a huge rally going forward.
calm chance
I think that's got to be a better-than-even chance at this point. We know from their discussions that they were very, very nervous. This isn't going to calm them down any.
cue cut everybody good gotten markets quarter
I think they'll cut a quarter point, like everybody else in the market. The markets have gotten a pretty good read on what's going on, and I take my cue from them.
bear bite cheer cut feeling happens history market people sort taken tells themselves trying
People may not be feeling all that good, but they are trying to cheer themselves up. They're not constrained yet, but I do think it is going to set in. The bear market has taken a big, big bite out of wealth, and history tells us when that happens people do sort of cut back.
higher later oil people prices start
Just as a warning: People better start bracing for higher oil prices later in the year.
companies gotten
I think companies have gotten a little behind.
breath effective expect few happen holding july monetary money months policy six takes time until year
I thought the first six months of the year would be a white-knuckle ride. But monetary policy is as effective as ever. That money takes time to get in there, but I think it will stabilize things. We shouldn't expect anything to happen until July at earliest, though, and we'll have a few more months of holding our breath here.
begin believe environment later sink sooner
I think we're going to have to begin to believe that we're not in an inflationary environment. Sooner or later it's going to sink in.
demand people sheer stuff wanting
It was just the sheer demand of people wanting stuff and the demand of supplying it.
exporting good rest shape tough
The rest of the world is not in good shape and exporting to them is a tough slog.
bit boost closer edge estimate everybody fairly fed fourth quarter sitting string strong
This is kind of capping a string of fairly strong numbers, and I'm even going to have to boost my estimate of fourth quarter GDP up closer to 3 percent. We know the Fed is sitting on the edge of its seat. It's going to make everybody a bit nervous.
dramatic evidence gradual people
It's not a dramatic fallout, and I don't see any evidence of panic. It's much more of a gradual adjustment; people have to diversify a little more. It just slows things down a little bit.