Marios Maratheftis
Marios Maratheftis
continue dollar dominating fed market rate short signals supporting term theme thinking until
The dominating theme in the market is yield. That's supporting the dollar and will continue to do so in the short term until the Fed signals it's thinking about the end of the rate cycle.
appreciate believe china continue currency gradual rid
The currency will continue to appreciate at a gradual pace. We don't believe China will get rid of its gradualist approach.
economic fact good investing investors japanese less missing overseas piece puzzle sign situation strong stronger translated
The situation with the yen is a very strong economic story which hasn't translated into a stronger currency. The one missing piece of the puzzle was the fact that Japanese investors were investing more abroad. Any sign that they're investing less overseas is good for the yen.
comments hikes later positive rate shift
Fukui's comments are positive on a shift in policy, and we may even get rate hikes later this year. That is positive for the yen.
aggressive dollars expect hurt lead less outright sell signal
I don't expect them to outright sell dollars -- that would lead to a crash, which would hurt China. It may signal a less aggressive accumulation of dollar reserves.
change seems testimony
Nothing in today's testimony seems to change this.
aggressive chinese correct gradual key move path rhetoric
There has been more aggressive rhetoric from the U.S., but rhetoric is not going to make the Chinese move faster. They're on the correct path with a gradual strengthening of the yuan. Gradual is the key word.
change convincing difficult economic interest japan likely news policy rate recovery stage until
Economic news from Japan is positive, but the yen isn't benefiting from this very much because we're not likely to see a change in the interest rate policy yet. It's going to be difficult for the yen to stage a convincing recovery until the BOJ acts.
reason
It is technical, there is no real reason.
although bank building cuts england half hold pressure rate second weakness
We're going to see significant sterling weakness this year. Although the Bank of England is on hold for now the pressure is building for rate cuts in the second half of the year.
came change data hike interest march market numbers percent pricing pushed rate towards
The payrolls data managed to change interest rate expectations -- the market was pricing in a March (U.S. rate) hike by about 75-80 percent before the payrolls numbers came out. Once they had come out that was pushed towards 90 percent.
becomes bit clearer euro happening likely reforms result risk
There's a risk we get a bit of an overreaction to this result. We could still see reforms happening in Germany, and as the result becomes clearer the euro is likely to rebound.
action comments excite market rhetoric
His (Weber's) comments are across-the-board hawkish... But the market has to see action. The rhetoric doesn't excite the market anymore.
consistent market message
The message was consistent with what the market was already expecting.