Lynn Franco
Lynn Franco
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The sluggish economy, declining consumer confidence, widespread layoffs and the tragic events of Sept. 11 appear likely to hold down holiday spending as we head into the final five weeks of the year, ... But retail outlets offering the price-conscious consumer a good buy may fare better than projected.
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The shock of the hurricanes and subsequent leap in gas prices has begun wearing off just in time for the holiday season.
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The sharp drop in short-term expectations in January is more likely due to international circumstances than domestic instabilities,
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The resiliency of the economy, recent declines in prices at the pump and job growth have consumers feeling more confident at year-end than they felt at the start of 2005.
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The swift outcome in the Middle East has helped quell consumers' short-term concerns. While an increase of this magnitude occurred after the Persian Gulf War in 1991, this post-war surge differs in that both components of the index posted gains.
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The tight labor market and continue optimism about jobs is clearly keeping consumer spirits high.
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As the economic ramifications of Sept. 11 continue to reverberate in the coming weeks and months, and the number of layoffs continues to rise, the economy faces tougher times ahead. While consumers have managed to keep the U.S. out of a recession for several years now, that soon may no longer be the case.
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Consumers' upbeat mood about current business and labor conditions underscores the economy's continuing recovery, but the latest retreat in expectations suggest that the pace of economic growth will not accelerate in the months ahead,
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Widespread layoffs and rising unemployment do not signal a rebound in confidence anytime soon, ... With the holiday season quickly approaching, there is little positive stimuli on the horizon.
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While the economy has not turned around yet, the worst may well be over. The upturn in confidence is being driven by growing confidence about the business outlook and job prospects. Consumer expectations for the future are now higher than they have been in more than a year.
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We're a little more positive about the outlook of the holiday shopping season than we were in October.
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We think a lot of that is reaction to the spike in prices at the pump following Katrina.
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Growing optimism about the overall health of the economy continues to bolster consumers' short-term outlook. But consumers' assessment of current conditions, which strongly hinges on improvements in the labor market, remains both weak and volatile.
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CEO confidence has slipped considerably over the past two quarters, as both current conditions and expectations have softened,