Lyle Gramley
Lyle Gramley
Lyle Elden Gramleywas an American economist. Involved in economic policymaking during the Carter and Reagan presidencies, he served on the Council of Economic Advisers from 1977 to 1980, and on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors from 1980 to 1985...
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What the Fed is trying to do, by being more transparent and more communicative, is highly desirable. But there are going to slips along the way. Ben will learn and the markets will learn.
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I don't know what the bond market has been worried about. There's much talk about the possibility of inflation beginning to pick up. I don't see any signs of that at all apart from the rise in energy prices, which we all knew was going to take place.
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His answer was an honest one -- I think the markets misinterpreted what I said.
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Financial markets are going to become uneasy about this because Alan Greenspan has become an oracle,
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The markets are helping the Fed accomplish what it's seeking, to slow down the economy a bit, take some of the froth off,
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This is a very different recovery than any I've seen -- there's none of the dynamism or momentum we normally see,
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Not only is he as mentally acute as the average 77-year-old, he's as acute as the average 27-year-old. He has a phenomenal mind and very good judgment, ... People close to the decision-making at the Fed are almost unanimously in great praise of him, as I would be. I think it's a wonderful thing for the Fed and for the country that he's being kept on.
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The Fed will be content to sit on the sidelines to await more definitive evidence as to whether inflation is going to be a problem or not, ... Setting the election aside entirely, the Fed, looking at the incoming data, would say to itself 'right now we don't want to raise interest rates and we don't need to raise interest rates.'
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The Fed is looking at an economy right now that is growing strongly with upside risks to inflation.
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Crisis management has been elevated to a very fine skill under his tutelage.
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This is an economy that's been struggling to keep its head above water for some time, so this kind of a rise in long-term interest rates is not welcome at this point,
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Anyone who sits at that table knows that if the Fed puts his head up in the midst of an election campaign when it's not necessary to do so, that would be a rather foolish thing to do. You don't want people shooting at you unnecessarily - you'd rather live to fight another day.
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The bottom line is that their principal concern is that inflation might go lower, so we'll get the same kind of statement we got last time.
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This is a situation where the uncertainties have suddenly become huge. If all the concerns translate into much lower personal spending, then the economy could falter.