Lawrence Yun
Lawrence Yun
Lawrence Yun is a Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research at the National Association of Realtors. He oversees the production of existing home sales statistics and the popular Home Buyer and Home Seller survey reports. He regularly appears on CNBC, BBC, Bloomberg Television, and is often quoted in the media. Yun is also a frequent speaker at Real Estate conferences throughout the United States. In March 2008, USA Today listed him among the top 10 economic forecasters in...
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Prices have doubled in some Florida markets over the past four or five years, so the 10 percent increase we're forecasting for the state this year might seem kind of small compared to recent trends.
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Our experience says prices do not go down when there's job creation in the local economy. In local markets where they are flat on jobs, they could see prices decline. But we're projecting 2.3 million new jobs this year. The job market is providing a buffer. It's a counter force to rising rates.
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I am confident in saying Atlanta will continue to see growth over the next year. The Atlanta area is less sensitive to changes in the housing market right now.
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We have been monitoring several markets where there could be significant stress due to the market correction. Chicago is not on that list.
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You're seeing two separate markets. One is in the coastal regions where you're seeing a substantial decline in home sales. The second is in the middle part of the country, in the affordable regions, where the job market is more important than interest rates.
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You need a strong job market with people in their 20s moving out of their parents' homes before rents recover.
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People are moving out of these regions to the South and the West. They're putting more supply on the market at the same time there is less demand.
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Nationwide, the numbers clearly indicate the market is cooling, but cooling from the record sales pace in 2005. Now, we're experiencing what we characterize as healthy levels.
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The larger declines were recorded in the high-priced markets that are more sensitive to mortgage rate changes.
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All housing market indicators are pointing to a move away from the frenzied record sales pace to, I would say, a more healthy rate of activity.
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The housing market is shifting away from the record-breaking pace of last year to a more sustainable pace.
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The housing market is certainly shifting away from a record-breaking pace.
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The market clearly has some legs left. Buyers who were sitting on the fence, hoping mortgage rates would decline, have decided to make the move now.
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The strong rise in prices cut into affordability, even with the low rates.