Larry Wachtel
Larry Wachtel
Larry Wachtelwas a stock, bonds, and equities commentator on the New York City metropolitan area radio. He added a populist flavor to his commentary on the stock market and spoke in a thick Brooklyn accent...
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Attention will be focused on the statement that follows the 2:15 p.m. ET rate announcement, as it will give us a better indication on the Fed's future course of action. Noteworthy is that the tendency has been for the market to rally ahead of the Fed meeting and to sell-on-the-news after the announcement, ... While the market is advancing, it is on light volume due to this being a Monday in the slow month of August in front of tomorrow's economic policy uncertainty.
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The only thing that would shake me would be a fundamental change, if rates would rise dramatically to 7 percent, if the profit margin contraction continued, if the love affair by the public with mutual funds would cool off. The fact that the Dow is fluctuating more than it used to doesn't turn me on or turn me off.
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We have good earnings today, but there's just too much good economic news. We're increasing the likelihood of a rate hike in June. The data are coming in stronger than expected, so the Street is expecting another hike. The better the news, the more likely the Fed will tighten. It's a strange phenomenon that good news can be bad news.
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The two major hurdles continue to be oil and interest rates on the Treasuries. The market has demonstrated through the first quarter that we can snap back.
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There were a couple of one-shot deals in the PPI -- auto prices and tobacco prices. If you took those two items out, the core rate was up 0.1. That's the reason why the markets have come back a little. I've analyzed the numbers and realized that this is not inflation out of control.
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A quarter-point rate hike would send a message of steady as she goes.
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The bull market only ends on a fundamental reason. It ends if inflation rises and rates rise. It ends if profits dive. It doesn't end because the Dow goes down on a random day based on program trading.
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The weakness from Friday carried forward to the international markets and we could get a horrific open here today. The concerns stem from the rising rates structure and what we got on Friday was something of a good news, bad news syndrome.
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Rising rates won't hurt the new techies, but they might impact the 'old economy' customers.
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The differentiation is where the recession is coming from. When you're in a consumer-housing situation, the rate cuts have a very dramatic effect and hit much sooner. But when you're in a manufacturing recession involving overcapacity and inventory overhang, it's not going to make people borrow.
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We're going through this pre-announcement period where all the gloom and all the doom and all the negative statements are being made.
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The selling last week was so extreme, there had to be a snap back.
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Even if Bush were to win, there's no mandate to do any radical legislation.
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Earnings statements will make or break the market this week. I'll be watching the reports coming from some of the technology names, because I think that sector may lead the way this year.