Larry Sabato
Larry Sabato
Larry Joseph Sabatois an American political scientist and political analyst. He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, where he is also the founder and director of the Center for Politics, which works to promote civic engagement and participation. The Center for Politics is also responsible for the publication of Sabato's Crystal Ball, an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and electoral projections...
Larry Sabato quotes about
attempt bad bush comeback democrats frequently great news party republican
We can always go too far, and frequently do. Is it a harbinger? Who knows. But it's unadulterated bad news for Bush and the Republican Party and great news for Democrats as they attempt to make a comeback in 2006.
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Right now, more than 10 months before the mid-term election, Democrats have a good chance of gaining seats in both houses of Congress.
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That is a major problem for President Bush and the Republicans. The Democrats are bound to benefit from it in the mid-term elections of 2006. The question is, to what degree?
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This is red meat for Democratic activists. Many Democrats wonder if she can be elected in November 2008, so she has to keep the activist Democrats onboard. They're the ones who vote in the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries.
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If the Democrats win it's one more indication that Bush is a significant drag on Republican candidates.
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If Warner can't swing the election to his own lieutenant governor with a popularity rating of 75 percent, then Democrats have the right to ask, 'Can this guy really swing any Southern states or was this a fluke?
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If you look at the polls carefully, they show that Americans are disaffected with the Bush administration policy in Iraq, but have very little confidence in the Democrats on that score either.
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An actual takeover in either house is very difficult. It's possible, but it will take a Democratic wave, even a tsunami. Everything must come together for the Democrats to do this.
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I've probably seen 200-plus state polls over the past six months, and McCain is leading almost everywhere, and where he doesn't lead, Rudy Giuliani is ahead. All the other candidates are just footnotes.
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The sixth year of a two-term president's administration is typically an opportunity for voters to send a message. It's not going to be a pretty message for Bush, if his popularity stays this low.
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The Senate and the House are at loggerheads, and it would be virtually impossible for the leaders of those two houses to be close friends under those circumstances. It would lead to suspicions from their respective caucuses.
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Is it possible that he can come back? Sure. There have been some tremendous and significant rebounds in American history and this would be one of them.
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I sincerely believe he did try to talk Card out of it, he didn't want to accept this ... and I was told that by somebody who has some knowledge of it.
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Is he running purely because of personal ambition, or is he the head of a movement? ... We remember the heads of movements.