Lara Rhame
Lara Rhame
believe consumer fatigue firmly further positive signs spending stay year
I firmly believe consumer spending will stay in positive territory, but I think we will see further signs of consumer fatigue as the year progresses.
across auto based flat gone growth headline mainly november number positive sales seeing spending true
We had a positive headline number with November's upward revision, but we're still seeing a discouraging trend. Excluding auto sales, sales have gone from 0.8 to 0.3 to flat over October, November and December. So we're seeing growth mainly based on auto purchases. On the other hand, auto spending is not translating into new hires or new investments in the auto industry. And that's true across industries.
consumer federal growth moderate reserve spending time warning
This is what the Federal Reserve has been warning about for a long time -- we will still see consumer spending growth, but it will be more moderate than before, ... It's a retrenchment of consumer spending growth from blistering levels.
confidence crucial forward good patriotic question reflected rise simply spending
This is undeniably good news. The crucial question going forward is going to be if the rise in confidence is reflected in more spending on the part of the consumer, or if it's simply a patriotic rally.
cause consumer employment growth job shock shut situation spending
I think the employment situation is getting better, slowly, so I don't think it will cause the consumer to shut down, ... But job growth like this makes consumer spending that much more fragile, if some exogenous shock should hit.
consumer defied healthy kept past recession spending year
For the past year and a half, the consumer has defied a recession and Sept. 11 and kept spending at a healthy pace.
consumer factors fourth growth lifted looked mean months pace quarter six slower spending third weak
The confluence of factors that so lifted consumer spending in the third quarter is dissipating. Six months ago, this wouldn't have looked like a weak number, but it will mean a substantially slower pace of consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter.
building case consumer finally growth income seen slow slowing spending strong
The consumer is finally winding down. We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.
building case consumer finally growth income seen slow slowing spending strong
The consumer is finally winding down, ... We've seen income growth slow somewhat, and we have enough headwinds building that we can make a strong case for spending slowing markedly.
assets attractive current declining deficit dollar foreign further less means pressure puts vicious
What the current deficit does is make the dollar vulnerable. It means we could see a vicious cycle, where a declining dollar makes U.S. assets less attractive to foreign investors, which weakens our assets further, which puts further pressure on the dollar.
consumer gap hard shutting trade unless
I see the trade gap stabilizing, but it's hard to see it narrowing unless you get the U.S. consumer shutting down.
bear burden cries deaf euro falling wish
Europeans' cries are falling on deaf ears. Their wish that the euro not bear the burden of readjustment will not make it into the G7 statement.
bear burden cries deaf euro falling wish
Europeans' cries are falling on deaf ears, ... Their wish that the euro not bear the burden of readjustment will not make it into the G7 statement.
ball bouncing driveway easiest event fairly garage onto roof slope sure unclear
Probably the easiest way to think about the Sept. 11 event is to think of bouncing a ball off the roof of a garage onto the driveway, ... The ball's bouncing around, and it's still unclear what the slope of the driveway is. But we can be fairly sure it's sloping up.