Kurt Barnard
Kurt Barnard
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With gas prices the way they are and with people suddenly being burdened with monthly car payments, they are looking for bargains. People are taking their money from Bloomingdale's to Penney, Kohl's (NYSE: KSS - news ) and Target (NYSE: TGT - news ).
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Target has ignored Wal-Mart's changeover, and it has suffered because of it. Target will have a decent season, but they won't make the winner's circle.
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The problem with Target is a problem facing every retailer. The price of gas is coming down, but home heating oil is going to be a major problem, ... A lot of consumers are worried.
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With Wal-Mart it's still a wait-and watch situation, but Target's news is a little worse. The problem with Target is that its department stores are underperforming.
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By shuttering the Marshall Field's catalogs, Target is saying something about its department stores business -- business isn't what it used to be, ... Part of the reason is that department stores overall are doing badly.
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The key for them is the marketing of a new and totally different identity from Wal-Mart or Target or anybody else, ... They have to create their own distinctive identity. The kind that will make you and me wake up in the morning and say, 'I need a new pair of pajamas -- I think I'll go to Kmart.'
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What the Gap is doing is not only what it must be doing, but what it should have done a long time ago.
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What's happening is very simple. The numbers we saw today are clear evidence that the American public is shell-shocked to the point of being frightened over a big long list of circumstances surrounding the economy over which they have no power, no control.
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The worst part of these results is that they show that the effect of the tax rebate checks has petered out. This is a nightmare in itself for retailers and it doesn't bode well for Christmas. Also, we'll probably see more markdowns now, more than retailers anticipated for the holidays. That will hurt their bottom line.
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They are all planning very cautiously, very carefully. Some companies have very decent inventory controls, but however good those controls are they still have to do some economic forecasting, and forecasting is a little difficult this time around. Nobody is going to spring for big orders until there's evidence that consumer demand is back, and there is no such evidence to date.
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The sales clear evidence of modest consumer spending slow down. We expect a decent holiday sales season, but an unspectacular one. The last three have been spectacular, particularly the last one.
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Early indications show that store traffic and the promotional activity is at lower levels than last year at this time. I wouldn't be surprised if many retailers try to get away with selling merchandise at full price.
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February sales were very strong, stronger than anticipated in many instances. I will tell you that if you were a retailer in February and did not do very well, you stood out like a sore thumb. We're telling our clients that the first half of this year will continue to be marked by continued strong spending at the retail cash register.
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February is a testing month for spring, and the results have not been spectacular, ... There seems to be a sense of foreboding that while spring is likely to be a smidgen better than we have seen in past months, it is not going to be a barn-burner.