Kurt Barnard
Kurt Barnard
activity early full last levels lower retailers selling store surprised traffic year
Early indications show that store traffic and the promotional activity is at lower levels than last year at this time. I wouldn't be surprised if many retailers try to get away with selling merchandise at full price.
achieved below decent disastrous fall holiday levels people sales season year
No one should come to the conclusion, as some people have already done, that this is going to be a disastrous holiday sales season for retailers. For most, it's going to be a decent sales season, but it will fall for most below the levels achieved a year ago.
economic forces high jobs level low money people rate spending work year
There are two conflicting forces at work on the consumer. One is people have jobs, they have money, the unemployment rate is still at a 30-year low of 3.9 percent, a lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable. A lot of economic circumstances are very, very favorable, people have money and jobs, but they don't have as high a discretionary spending level as they did a year ago.
continue level maybe pop retail weather
It's going to continue on this level for some time. Maybe if the weather really improves, we'll find a little pop to retail sales, but even if it does improve, there will still be the contraction in the economy.
against easier exuberant far favorable high level retailers slide suffering year
What we are suffering from is the slide from the exuberant high we had a year ago at a level that was completely unsustainable, ... I will also tell you retailers are going to be up against far more favorable numbers, easier numbers.
gap time
What the Gap is doing is not only what it must be doing, but what it should have done a long time ago.
clear economy evidence frightened happening list numbers point public saw today
What's happening is very simple. The numbers we saw today are clear evidence that the American public is shell-shocked to the point of being frightened over a big long list of circumstances surrounding the economy over which they have no power, no control.
bottom checks effect hurt itself nightmare results retailers tax worst
The worst part of these results is that they show that the effect of the tax rebate checks has petered out. This is a nightmare in itself for retailers and it doesn't bode well for Christmas. Also, we'll probably see more markdowns now, more than retailers anticipated for the holidays. That will hurt their bottom line.
companies consumer controls decent demand difficult economic evidence good however inventory nobody orders planning spring time until
They are all planning very cautiously, very carefully. Some companies have very decent inventory controls, but however good those controls are they still have to do some economic forecasting, and forecasting is a little difficult this time around. Nobody is going to spring for big orders until there's evidence that consumer demand is back, and there is no such evidence to date.
clear consumer decent evidence expect holiday last modest sales slow spending three
The sales clear evidence of modest consumer spending slow down. We expect a decent holiday sales season, but an unspectacular one. The last three have been spectacular, particularly the last one.
cash clients continue continued february half marked retail sales sore spending stood stronger telling year
February sales were very strong, stronger than anticipated in many instances. I will tell you that if you were a retailer in February and did not do very well, you stood out like a sore thumb. We're telling our clients that the first half of this year will continue to be marked by continued strong spending at the retail cash register.
february likely month past results seems seen spring testing
February is a testing month for spring, and the results have not been spectacular, ... There seems to be a sense of foreboding that while spring is likely to be a smidgen better than we have seen in past months, it is not going to be a barn-burner.
beginning blowing breeze caution cold consumers days general headlines layoffs newspapers seeing suddenly weakness winter
There's a general sense of weakness and caution and I'll tell you the headlines in the newspapers these days do not help, ... We're seeing more layoffs and consumers are beginning to feel there's a cold winter breeze suddenly blowing their way.
beginning blowing breeze caution cold consumers days general headlines layoffs newspapers seeing suddenly weakness winter
There's a general sense of weakness and caution and I'll tell you, the headlines in the newspapers these days do not help. We're seeing more layoffs and consumers are beginning to feel there's a cold winter breeze suddenly blowing their way.