Kurt Barnard
Kurt Barnard
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The sales clear evidence of modest consumer spending slow down. We expect a decent holiday sales season, but an unspectacular one. The last three have been spectacular, particularly the last one.
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We have had a series of rate increases since last year, and so far we have not felt any impact on retailing off all of these increases. However, eventually something will have to give. I would predict that, say towards the end of the year, the fourth quarter, the very all-important holiday fourth quarter, we are going to see that the rate increases will finally take a bite. And that could be a comfort to retailing.
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No one should come to the conclusion, as some people have already done, that this is going to be a disastrous holiday sales season for retailers. For most, it's going to be a decent sales season, but it will fall for most below the levels achieved a year ago.
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Wal-Mart's news is a very big deal. There's no doubt that a significant number of consumers are shopping paycheck to paycheck. Most are also waiting for price reductions. So saying that the consumer is still cautious is a good indicator that the holiday season will only be moderately better than last year.
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Wal-Mart's news is a very big deal, ... There's no doubt that a significant number of consumers are shopping paycheck to paycheck. Most are also waiting for price reductions because they know that the support of another tax rebate or tax reduction is unlikely. So saying that the consumer is still cautious is a good indicator that the holiday season will only be moderately better than last year.
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Retailers know that for a lot of consumers, this is a time of uncertainty about their jobs, ... This will make them frugal with their holiday shopping and they will be on the hunt for the best deals out there.
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Halloween has become in recent times a little more of a retail-type holiday than you've seen it in decades past. It's becoming a little more important not just for sales of scary masks, but there generally is more traffic into the stores. It's sort of the beginning of fall, something like the precursor for what's to come.
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The fourth quarter is going to reflect the intensely promotional nature of the holiday shopping season, make no mistake.
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What the Gap is doing is not only what it must be doing, but what it should have done a long time ago.
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What's happening is very simple. The numbers we saw today are clear evidence that the American public is shell-shocked to the point of being frightened over a big long list of circumstances surrounding the economy over which they have no power, no control.
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The worst part of these results is that they show that the effect of the tax rebate checks has petered out. This is a nightmare in itself for retailers and it doesn't bode well for Christmas. Also, we'll probably see more markdowns now, more than retailers anticipated for the holidays. That will hurt their bottom line.
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They are all planning very cautiously, very carefully. Some companies have very decent inventory controls, but however good those controls are they still have to do some economic forecasting, and forecasting is a little difficult this time around. Nobody is going to spring for big orders until there's evidence that consumer demand is back, and there is no such evidence to date.
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Early indications show that store traffic and the promotional activity is at lower levels than last year at this time. I wouldn't be surprised if many retailers try to get away with selling merchandise at full price.
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February sales were very strong, stronger than anticipated in many instances. I will tell you that if you were a retailer in February and did not do very well, you stood out like a sore thumb. We're telling our clients that the first half of this year will continue to be marked by continued strong spending at the retail cash register.