Kevin Hawkins
Kevin Hawkins
believing came change cuts energy fooled further growth heavy improvement interest july margins position property relative rising slight squeezed underlying unless unlikely until weak
No one should be fooled into believing that the slight improvement relative to July indicates a change in trend. Any growth came from heavy discounting, which is not sustainable - especially as retailers' margins are already being squeezed by rising labour, property and energy costs. The underlying position is still weak and unlikely to improve unless and until there are further cuts in interest rates.
adjusting sales timing trend underlying
The probability is that, after adjusting for the timing of Easter, the underlying trend in like-for-like sales is, at best, flat.
again bank consumer continuing contrary results sign spending squeeze
These results underline yet again the continuing squeeze on consumer spending and, contrary to the Bank of England's expectations, there is no sign of an upturn.
across board confirm decline deflation price results retail showing third time
These results confirm unequivocally that retail price deflation continues, with price deflation across the board showing a month-on-month decline for the third time this year.
allow easter expect fact flat knew march minus normally percentage trend underlying worth year
Easter this year isn't in March, it's in April, so we always knew that March would be a minus figure. If you allow for the fact that is Easter is normally worth about 1 to 1 1/2 percentage points, then the underlying trend is flat and we expect that to continue.
asking bank growth household people rising stimulus unless worried
We keep asking the bank where they think this growth is going to come from. With people increasingly worried about rising household bills, unless there is some stimulus from the bank itself, we are not going to see any substantial growth.
against comparison expected growth lift negative november territory weak
While the growth in November was against a weak comparison in November 2004, it is better than many had expected and the lift out of negative territory is encouraging in itself.
broad cost exposed forced larger low retailers spectrum
While most larger retailers have a broad spectrum of suppliers and are not unduly exposed to China, other retailers will be forced to look at sourcing from other low cost countries,
central consumers continue deterred further london question stay threat tourists whether
The question now is whether some consumers will continue to stay away from central London and whether tourists will be deterred by the threat of further disruption,
although bank both change christmas clearly expect further helpful industry interest rates reduction retailers today
We did not expect any change in interest rates today from the Bank of England, although clearly a further reduction in the run-up to Christmas would have been helpful to both retailers and industry in general.
downward half improvement sales slight trend
Another slight improvement in like-for like sales is very welcome, especially considering the downward trend in the first half of this year.
bringing china consumers defending eu european greatest handful high hope remains rights trust value word
As China remains the greatest hope for bringing unbeatable value to our high streets, we trust the EU will keep its word on defending the rights of consumers and not just a handful of uncompetitive European producers.
best central customer events generate helped increase july last london ongoing recovery reflects retailers turn useful
A very useful increase in customer footfall in Central London has helped to generate this exceptional rate of growth. This in turn reflects the ongoing recovery from the events of last July which retailers will be doing their best to sustain.
drop figure impressive july last news october retailers sales seen severe worrying
This is an impressive like-for-like figure and encouraging news for retailers in the capital, especially considering the severe and very worrying drop in sales seen in July through to October last year.