Ken Sheinberg
Ken Sheinberg
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Right now we're in the middle of the range, pricing in some positive news, and the market will be susceptible to negative news. We're in a situation where, within a downward move, you're going to have short, sharp rallies.
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People get a little fed up and see their portfolio down significantly, and I always laugh to myself, because I still got paid.
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People get a little fed up and see their 401(k) money down 40 percent over the last year, so they start to freak out a little bit. It's a very emotional time and the market trades on emotion. I think a lot of people have lost their nest eggs, so do they want to lose more?
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The theory is that with rate increases, it doesn't effect the 'new economy' stocks.
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Leadership isn't phenomenal and now you're entering pre-announcement season, so people are worried. Volume hasn't been great, but trends are definitely in place ? technology is for sale and defensive issues are to buy.
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We've got a bad economic situation, a bad technical situation, so why should the market go up?
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Stocks don't go straight down and stocks don't go straight up. The market's in trouble ? technically, it's in trouble and fundamentally it's in trouble. We're going to bounce around with a downward bias.
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It's a little bump off of a serious decline ? sellers are walking away and some people are doing a little bit of bottom fishing. Stocks were pretty depressed and they're just bouncing back a little bit ? there's nothing behind it.
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I think it's triple witching activity. The move has been pretty impressive but the liquidity has been horrendous so it doesn't take a lot to move this market. There was a rather large asset allocation and when that got through, you had a lot of short covering and bottom fishing that just fed on itself.
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The market has priced in a lot of positive news ? but the bottom line is that corporate earnings are not there, there's zero visibility and there's not going to be for at least another two quarters.