Jonathan Loynes
Jonathan Loynes
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Job creation is concentrated in the service sector, ... High-growth areas such as financial services and information technology require skilled workers.
build cat margins mouse playing price retailers reverse
Retailers are playing a cat and mouse game, ... they try to build their margins back up, but then have to reverse price increases.
below bills close core current effects electricity energy expect fading falls few further gas half headline inflation levels looking next push rate rising second target
Looking ahead, rising gas and electricity bills could keep inflation close to current levels for the next few months. But we expect further falls in core inflation and fading energy effects to push the headline rate well below target in the second half of the year.
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January's UK retail sales figures confirm the evidence from the surveys that the pick-up in spending growth over Christmas was short-lived.
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We are not wholly convinced that this is the start of a period of stronger and more healthily balanced economic growth, however.
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We remain comfortable with our view that interest rates will fall further this year as output remains below trend and inflation falls back below its target.
although market quickly quite risen scope seems stock
It just seems to me that although the stock market has already risen quite strongly, if you look at how quickly the macroeconomic indicators have risen, there is still some scope for the market to rise even further.
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To hit Mr Brown's forecast now, quarterly growth would have to average around 1.0 percent in the remaining three quarters which looks very unlikely.
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While the stronger-than-expected rise in British GDP put a further dent in the prospects of an interest rate cut in February, we still expect the combination of sluggish growth and falling inflation this year to prompt a modest loosening of monetary policy.
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It would have been better to have left the growth forecast unchanged, but that would have lowered the inflation forecast to below its target. They are having to work hard not to have to cut interest rates.
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A very weak report, casting doubt on the Monetary Policy Committee's assumption that household spending will grow in line with its long-term average over the next three years and boosting the chances of a rate cut.
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August's UK public finances figures are, for once, rather better than expected.
acted early landing scenario soft
The MPC has acted early and aggressively. The soft landing scenario is still on track.
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A dovish Inflation Report tomorrow and soft retail sales on Thursday could open the door to a March rate cut.