Jonathan Loynes
Jonathan Loynes
changed control direction either hold interest likely month rates remain seventh since taking
Interest rates are very likely to remain on hold for a seventh consecutive month in March, it being the only month in which the MPC has never changed rates in either direction since taking control in 1997.
average forecast growth hit looks mr percent quarters remaining three
To hit Mr Brown's forecast now, quarterly growth would have to average around 1.0 percent in the remaining three quarters which looks very unlikely.
british cut dent expect falling further growth inflation interest modest monetary prompt prospects rate rise sluggish year
While the stronger-than-expected rise in British GDP put a further dent in the prospects of an interest rate cut in February, we still expect the combination of sluggish growth and falling inflation this year to prompt a modest loosening of monetary policy.
market
There are no very significant indicators that the market is getting too expensive.
build cat margins mouse playing price retailers reverse
Retailers are playing a cat and mouse game, ... they try to build their margins back up, but then have to reverse price increases.
christmas confirm evidence figures growth retail sales spending uk
January's UK retail sales figures confirm the evidence from the surveys that the pick-up in spending growth over Christmas was short-lived.
below bills close core current effects electricity energy expect fading falls few further gas half headline inflation levels looking next push rate rising second target
Looking ahead, rising gas and electricity bills could keep inflation close to current levels for the next few months. But we expect further falls in core inflation and fading energy effects to push the headline rate well below target in the second half of the year.
near term
I think in the near term there will be more upward pressure,
coming cyclical growth italy low performance rather recovery remain structural
Italy is going to remain at the back of the performance tables. We should see a pick-up in growth this year, but it is coming off a very low base. It is a cyclical recovery rather than any kind of real structural improvement.
areas creation financial information job require service services skilled technology
Job creation is concentrated in the service sector, ... High-growth areas such as financial services and information technology require skilled workers.
below fall falls further inflation interest output rates remain remains trend view year
We remain comfortable with our view that interest rates will fall further this year as output remains below trend and inflation falls back below its target.
balanced convinced economic period start stronger wholly
We are not wholly convinced that this is the start of a period of stronger and more healthily balanced economic growth, however.
consumer expect interest prompt rate
We still expect that the consumer slowdown will prompt more interest rate cuts,
add bit cuts cycle economic events good key lower perfectly rates reasons regardless stages
Today's cuts add a bit of pressure, ... but they're not the key factor. We're at dramatically different stages of the economic cycle (from Europe), and there are perfectly good reasons for the MPC to lower rates aggressively regardless of events on the Continent.