John Shin
John Shin
consumer continuing details drive expecting fairly growth positive robust
When you look at the details on the positive revision, it's a fairly robust figure. The consumer is continuing to drive a lot of the growth that we're expecting in the first quarter.
basis continuing fed funny keeps number pause points quickly raising sentiment soon track
It's pretty funny how quickly sentiment can swing, but I think it's too soon for the Fed to pause (in raising rates). This morning's number keeps the Fed on track continuing 25 basis points (quarter-point) hikes.
bigger bill coming deficits fears finally outlook trade whether
There will be some bigger fears about whether the bill for years and years of trade deficits is finally coming due. The outlook is for continued, big current-account deficits.
areas coming consumer drop economy kicking lower negatives offset pain reason seeing spending workers
We do think you're going to see a drop off in consumer spending in coming months. Part of the reason is workers are experiencing pain in their take-home pay. You're still seeing other areas of the economy kicking in. These will offset some of the negatives from lower consumer spending.
looking market
Most of the market is looking at Rita.
consistent cool couple data existing expect february gradually home housing market number past quarters sales shows strength view
While we still expect the housing market to cool gradually -- and the data over the past couple of quarters has been consistent with that view -- the February existing home sales number shows the considerable strength that is still in the residential sector.
continue expect fed hike inflation response tone
We continue to expect that the Fed will keep its hawkish tone and hike on Sept. 20, in response to inflation pressures,
argue bubble california difficult level national reduction since
It is difficult to argue that there is a bubble on a national level since it more of a coastal story, such as California and Florida. There has also been a reduction in speculative buying.
auto consumer drop expect growth lower major primarily sharp
Fourth-quarter growth is going to be softer, primarily because of lower consumer spending, but we expect better growth this quarter. A major part of it is the sharp drop in auto sales, and we wouldn't expect to see that again.
both economic fairly growth near outlook overall solid tells
From an economic perspective, it tells us that we are still having a fairly solid growth in both manufacturing and the overall outlook in the near term.
bit fed inflation people risks talking thinking
This will get people thinking a little bit more about the inflation risks the Fed has been talking about.
change continued deficits dominant factor growth large relative rest stronger terms trade
There is still significantly stronger growth in the U.S. relative to the rest of the world. That's been the dominant factor in terms of continued large trade deficits and that's not going to change much this year.
amount coverage disaster enormous katrina reflect
It really does reflect the enormous amount of coverage of the Katrina disaster.
bears
We feel that such a possibility is still a long way off, but it is a development that bears watching.