John Read
John Read
above base based beyond capable consider demand events factors fair flows investment lifting metals past precious prices supply value
Base and precious metals are considerably above what we consider to be fair value - based on fundamental supply and demand factors - but events of the past two years have demonstrated that investment and speculative flows are very capable of lifting prices well beyond fundamental fair value.
above believe buying fair justified metals precious stop trading weight
We believe that all precious metals are trading above fundamentally justified fair value, but the weight of investor, speculator and commodity-index buying has demonstrated that this does not stop metals trading ever-higher.
attempting believe confine extremes gold likely metal range recent
We believe that gold is attempting to find a range with the recent extremes of $535 and $555 likely to confine the metal for a while.
although believe both firm lower metals near platinum profit stage suspect taking term three towards
We believe that new-year allocations towards commodities will keep platinum and palladium firm in the near term and see platinum at $1,100/oz and palladium at $300/oz over one month, although we suspect that profit taking will set in at some stage and see both metals lower to $1,050/oz and $270/oz in three months.
additional buying compared derivative gold metal risk taken
I would say that when buying gold shares, additional risk is taken on compared to buying the metal or a derivative thereon.
appear believe bullish found gold metals precious recent soon support turn
Gold and the other precious metals appear to have found support after the recent sell-off, however, we believe it is too soon to turn bullish on gold specifically.
base demand emerges form fresh gold level metal physical support
The level at which physical demand emerges to support the metal will then form a base for gold to make fresh gains.
higher rand remains risk
The risk remains that the rand will be at the higher end of people's forecasts.
board decision intention management moment responsibility stand stress ultimate
The thing to stress is that the ultimate decision will be the responsibility of the management board and no decision has yet been made. As things stand at the moment it is our intention to go.
believe gold investment market physical point rising strength though trend vitally
We believe the strength of the physical market is vitally important for 2006; even though gold is rising on speculative and investment buying, at some point there will be a reversal of this trend and gold will correct.
believe break bring bullish correction extremes gold needed recent suspect
We do not believe that this correction is over and suspect that gold will now consolidate between recent extremes of $545 and $568, with a break of $575 needed to bring back bullish sentiment.
demand gold investment level money physical support underlying until
We need to find the level at which underlying physical demand will support gold. Until then, I wouldn't be comfortable with gold up here, because it's all investment and speculative money at the moment.
buying gold positive silver suspect technical
We suspect that technical buying of gold and silver on COMEX (New York) will be triggered by a positive announcement of the silver ETF.
extra next played win
We were going down and Duncan killed the first extra end and we played the next one and managed to win it.