Jim Paulsen
Jim Paulsen
again beat bigger came coming companies energy everybody expecting gains group higher markets precisely rates rest seemed stocks tells vulnerable
Everybody was expecting bigger companies to outperform in the first quarter, but gains came precisely from the group of stocks that seemed more vulnerable to higher rates and higher energy prices. This tells me that they may very well beat the rest of the markets again in coming months.
commodity cyclical happens hit interest people prices question rates start stocks whether
You've got commodity prices and the cyclical stocks getting hit and all of that happens when people start to question whether the interest rates are biting.
certainly market rate reflecting throughout
You certainly see a market throughout which is reflecting rate worries.
bond fact found good news pause run seem short stock taking tough yields
Yields seem to have found a high. Taking bond yields up every day has been a tough one for the stock market, and the fact it would pause is good news at least in short run for stocks.
absorb ahead assessment continue economy higher investors jobs might next pause rise solid stocks week
We might see a little pause for assessment on stocks next week ahead of the jobs report. From now on, stocks will rise only if investors continue to believe, just like the Fed, that the economy is solid and may absorb higher rates.
event higher impact initially net oil people
On net this is not going to be a big event economically. People initially went to the big impact it was going to have, all predicated on the idea that oil was going to go a lot higher (than it has).
central dramatic entire front global growth impact profit reasons recovery remained slowing strong trends
One of the central characteristics of this entire global recovery is the outsized impact of these new economies. That's one of the reasons why growth has remained strong in the U.S. and profit trends have been remained positive, so if there is any inkling that we are at the front end of slowing that down, that's going to make a dramatic difference.
bull globe huge looking market markets outside sitting states thinking united united-states wherever
When I look around the globe outside the United States I see nothing but a huge bull market going on wherever you look. We're sitting here in the United States and looking at flattish markets and thinking things are not so good.
broke caused close drop energy fact oil today
The fact that oil broke close to US$60 today caused a drop in S&P 500 energy stocks.
causes economy fed hinges whether
It all hinges on whether the Fed tightening slows the economy and causes a recession.
cycle earnings eight ends gives looking maybe pattern rest starts terrible
It gives you the sense that maybe this earnings cycle is going to be like the rest, where it starts out like it's going to be terrible and it ends up looking good, ... That's been the pattern for eight quarters.
alert rallying terror
I think that (the terror alert rumor) was most of this ... it's already rallying back.
certainly fan fear fed forward inflation longer people watch
That certainly is going to fan a little inflation fear here, and going forward it will at least keep people on the watch a little longer on the idea that the Fed is going to keep tightening.
bit earnings reports
What little earnings reports we have had have been a little bit more disappointing than outperforming, for the most part, so that's weighing.