Jarrod Kerr
Jarrod Kerr
christmas consumers continue few months next purse strings
Consumers have tightened the purse strings and this could continue over the next few months approaching Christmas.
confidence consumer difficult eight fallen five last months signals
Consumer confidence has fallen five times in the last eight months and signals that the difficult times are not over for households.
bank companies consumers content cranking happy passing pressure price rather reserve result retailers sit wearing
The Reserve Bank will be happy with this result and be content to sit on the sidelines. Companies are wearing some of the price pressure rather than passing it on. When consumers are tightening their purses, retailers don't want to be cranking up prices.
building consumer economic growth home rotation sources spending
The much-needed rotation in the sources of Australia's economic growth away from consumer spending and home building is well under way.
ahead confidence consumer further home house oil prices weakness
There is further weakness ahead for consumers. House prices are falling, home construction is soft, consumer confidence is down and oil prices have risen.
australian concern consumer depending economy exports growth slack spending transition
This is a concern for Australia's growth outlook. We've been depending on better exports to take up some of the slack in the Australian economy as consumer spending cools. So far, that transition hasn't been very smooth.
basis cuts easing high july points rate starting year
The probability of rate cuts this year is very high and we see 100 basis points of easing starting in July or September.
building central correction housing move rate rose though
We don't think there is anything to warrant a rate move from the central bank. Even though building approvals rose in November, housing is still in correction mode.
further interest provide rates reasons remain reports
These reports provide further reasons for interest rates to remain on hold.
economy economy-and-economics employment forward interest likely rate rates rising weaker
Employment is likely to be much weaker going forward and the jobless rate will keep rising as the economy cools. Interest rates are on hold.
building capacity corporate driver growth home household principal replaced spending
Corporate spending, particularly in mining, has replaced household spending and home building as the principal driver of growth in the economy. It will also alleviate capacity constraints in the economy.
bank central interest raise rates
There's no need for the central bank to raise interest rates again.
capacity clearly demand domestic easing expecting exports pick seeing slack
We've been expecting exports to pick up some of the slack of the easing domestic demand and we're not seeing this to date. So clearly there are capacity constraints out there that remain.
bank central employment forecast growth interest leave likely lower past rates sort unchanged year
Growth in employment this year is likely to be substantially lower than over the past year. In that sort of environment, we forecast the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year.