Jack Ablin
Jack Ablin
bigger economy history impact improvement interest lazy looking market oil prices rates seeing services shown stock tick
The tick up in oil prices hurts, but history has shown that interest rates have a much bigger impact on the stock market than oil. And looking at the ISM services number, you're seeing the kind of gradual, lazy improvement in the economy that's not going to really get rates going.
causing fairly investor issues market stock
Fundamentally, I think the stock market is fairly valued, but there are a lot of issues around that are causing investor concern.
dangerous fed growth holding interest market risky spite stocks value view
I don't view the market as risky or dangerous even in spite of more Fed tightening. We have enough value in U.S. and international growth stocks. What's holding stocks back right now is uncertainty about interest rates, not valuation.
leading names phenomenal seen stocks
We've come off a phenomenal July. And we've seen a real reversal in the stocks that were leading the market, with economically-sensitive names doing well.
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Investors are taking stock of earnings and questioning whether they should be as optimistic as they are.
bounce clear indication light moves week
With light volume, we're going to bounce around like a ping-pong ball. I wouldn't take any moves this week as a clear indication of anything.
assumes fed future hikes inflation lays next pace people percentage pivotal quarter raise rates reports statement thinking
The world assumes the Fed will raise the rates by a quarter percentage point, that's a non-event. It's what the statement lays out about the pace of future rate hikes that will be important, because that's what people are thinking about. I think the inflation reports will also be pivotal next week.
creating earnings engine environment market
Earnings are still the engine and the market is not overvalued, but the environment we are in is creating pressure.
information taking work
There's really not a lot of information here to work with, and I think the market's taking a rest.
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Right now, we have this positive confluence of earnings and economic news that has been propelling the market.
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Right now, the transparency we had with (former Chairman Alan) Greenspan is gone. We're trying to get some semblance of which way the Fed is going to go.
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Raising rates by more than 25 basis points would shock the market so much that the Fed's credibility would vanish.
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People are taking some comfort in results and a feeling that the economy is getting better, but there's still some caution. We need to see more evidence of a sustainable recovery. We need companies to start seeing profits more through top-line growth than just cost-cutting measures.
backdrop inflation leading market nice subdued
Between leading indicators and subdued inflation expectations, it's really set a nice backdrop for the market today,