Jack Ablin
Jack Ablin
bet confidence economy employment federal jobs order raising rates reserve sliding stop trend
Confidence is slipping, manufacturing is slowing, and even with today's jobs report, the employment trend is still negative. The bet here is that the Federal Reserve will have to stop raising rates in order to keep the economy from sliding further.
assumes fed future hikes inflation lays next pace people percentage pivotal quarter raise rates reports statement thinking
The world assumes the Fed will raise the rates by a quarter percentage point, that's a non-event. It's what the statement lays out about the pace of future rate hikes that will be important, because that's what people are thinking about. I think the inflation reports will also be pivotal next week.
bigger economy history impact improvement interest lazy looking market oil prices rates seeing services shown stock tick
The tick up in oil prices hurts, but history has shown that interest rates have a much bigger impact on the stock market than oil. And looking at the ISM services number, you're seeing the kind of gradual, lazy improvement in the economy that's not going to really get rates going.
basis market points raising rates shock
Raising rates by more than 25 basis points would shock the market so much that the Fed's credibility would vanish.
both good
In both fees and commissions, they're in good shape.
allow economic economists expecting federal gradual growth reserve wind
Economists are expecting a gradual slowdown in economic growth paired with a slowdown in inflation. That will allow the Federal Reserve to wind up its rate-hiking campaign.
behind bond chip continues economy economy-and-economics inflation market seem
The bond market is still behind the inflation curve. The inflation story continues to chip away at our economy and it doesn't seem to be getting any weaker.
convinced heading slow
I'm not convinced we're heading into a recession. But we will have a slow down.
among believed fed next possibly skip
It's increasingly believed among participants that the Fed will skip the next meeting, and possibly one more by the end of the year.
bad employment happened higher jobs last mean news perceived pickup recession recovery report seen sign throw track year
Any bad news can throw us, and the jobs report was perceived as bad news, seen as a sign that the recovery is fragile, but that's not necessarily true. In the last two recessions, a pickup in employment only happened a year after the recession had ended. So just because unemployment is higher doesn't mean we're not on track for a recovery.
bounce clear indication light moves week
With light volume, we're going to bounce around like a ping-pong ball. I wouldn't take any moves this week as a clear indication of anything.
cause commit continues error fed financial since time worry
What I worry about is that if the Fed continues to tighten, they could commit the same error they have done every time since 1980 and cause a financial crisis.
creating earnings engine environment market
Earnings are still the engine and the market is not overvalued, but the environment we are in is creating pressure.
information taking work
There's really not a lot of information here to work with, and I think the market's taking a rest.