Jack Ablin
Jack Ablin
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I would not expect investors and traders to make any big bets ahead of the number tomorrow. It clues us in on growth in the economy but also inflation.
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Fundamentally, I think the stock market is fairly valued, but there are a lot of issues around that are causing investor concern.
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Investors have their rally caps on for year end, and we're doing it with speculation. With a good inflation report and strong growth, it seems to be the perfect elixir for Wall Street.
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Investors are taking stock of earnings and questioning whether they should be as optimistic as they are.
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The confidence report really personifies what's going on in consumers' minds right now. Investors are looking at Katrina and Rita as a one-two punch for the economy.
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The housing news was the big setback today. While we suspect that housing is likely to slow and thereby take the primary catalyst away from consumer spending, the number came in worse than expected and forced investors to face reality much sooner.
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With light volume, we're going to bounce around like a ping-pong ball. I wouldn't take any moves this week as a clear indication of anything.
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The world assumes the Fed will raise the rates by a quarter percentage point, that's a non-event. It's what the statement lays out about the pace of future rate hikes that will be important, because that's what people are thinking about. I think the inflation reports will also be pivotal next week.
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Earnings are still the engine and the market is not overvalued, but the environment we are in is creating pressure.
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There's really not a lot of information here to work with, and I think the market's taking a rest.
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Right now, we have this positive confluence of earnings and economic news that has been propelling the market.
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Right now, the transparency we had with (former Chairman Alan) Greenspan is gone. We're trying to get some semblance of which way the Fed is going to go.
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Raising rates by more than 25 basis points would shock the market so much that the Fed's credibility would vanish.
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People are taking some comfort in results and a feeling that the economy is getting better, but there's still some caution. We need to see more evidence of a sustainable recovery. We need companies to start seeing profits more through top-line growth than just cost-cutting measures.