Ian Stannard
Ian Stannard
Ian Stannardis an English track and road racing cyclist for UCI ProTour team Team Sky...
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The yen has retraced some of its recent losses against the dollar, but expectations of a strong U.S. consumer confidence number are keeping the dollar broadly supported.
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There is increasing scope for the dollar to come under pressure. Once again, we see structural issues starting to work against the dollar.
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The backdrop for the dollar is negative. G-7 comments were negative while the foreign reserves issue has come back into focus and is going to be a long term negative factor.
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They've raised their inflation and growth forecasts, which suggests that the ECB thinks the European economy is improving and requires more rate hikes. These comments have helped the euro.
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The sentiment is turning dollar negative -- probably the biggest factor putting the dollar under pressure is the rise in oil prices and rise in gold prices.
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The Fed will be pausing after raising rates in May. Sterling is going to hold up reasonably well in the near term.
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The message from officials is that the impact from Katrina will be limited.
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The minutes are a very important event today, with any adjustment suggesting that the peak in rates is close, as we believe it is, seen putting the dollar under further pressure.
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Both have the potential to provide dollar with negative surprises.
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We think next year will be a very different story as excess global liquidity, the driver for carry trades, is drained by central banks.
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This adds to the impression that Asian central banks are going to be prepared to raise interest rates, and ultimately allow more strength in their currencies.
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Speculation regarding a ECB rate hike is likely to start building further, especially coming on top of the more hawkish comments we have been seeing from the ECB officials, so that will be euro supportive,
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During that (November) period the U.S. assets market was performing quite strongly. But I think in the coming months we are going to see some softness in that data as well.
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I believe the German election result is the worst outcome possible for the euro. Not only is there no clear winner, it will be difficult for either side to form a coalition and there seems to be hostility to the idea of a grand coalition.