Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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It is encouraging that the market has been able to hold together. The overall message is that the events in Southeast Asia will in time have an impact on the U.S. economy, but not a major impact in 1998. And that is really good news.
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One message we get is that the stocks people buy when they're scared -- basic materials, beverages, foods -- did not do as well. Investors are more optimistic about the economy.
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It seems so tied to the price of oil, that it's very hard to forecast what stocks will do next. On balance the message of the markets for the last nine trading sessions, including today, seems to have shifted to say that the price of oil is taking a chunk out of consumer spending.
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When the markets struggled for a technical bounce in the morning, that was investors sending a message that we're either heading toward an economic recession or toward a profits recession.
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The market is asking the question, given oil prices, given rates, given China's economy and other things, what does it look like for the economy and corporate profits in the fourth quarter and in 2005? The message we got last week was that it's probably not going to be as great as everybody once expected, but it will still be just fine.
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When all of the markets around the globe simultaneously go down, that's the message. That's what you have to worry about.
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It was almost a sure bet that the Fed was going to raise rates in June. Now it's almost a sure bet, say 50-50 at least, that they won't move in June.
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These stocks are so extraordinarily overvalued, and a lot of debt was built up to buy them. Everybody became a believer and had to be on board.
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The stock market rally today is because we drove the market down to levels that were on the cheap side and when you get news like the leading indicators saying things are going to be good for the economy and profits, that attracts buyers.
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The stock market has been closely connected to the bond market in the last two weeks, and today's stabilizing interest rates is probably the No. 1 reason behind the gains.
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The stock market has become modestly overvalued and investors are using a variety excuses to take money off the table. I wouldn't be surprised if the current, corrective phase continues and the market declines another 5 percent.
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The stuff that worked in the fourth quarter and the first part of this year isn't working any more, like Internet stocks, large-cap tech stocks, and other large-cap names.
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The simple truth is the economy rebounded from the fourth quarter and was very strong in the first quarter as measured by (gross domestic product). Secondly, based on what we've heard from companies, profit margins should be good.
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Is the possibility of a tax cut and a rate cut enough to eliminate or neutralized the concerns about the economy and earnings, letting the January effect play out, ... Watch the overall market and if the shift from defensive stocks to economically-sensitive stocks continues, it may be enough to turn the tide.