Himanshu Patel
Himanshu Patel
european high markets material prices pricing provide raw remains tire truck weak
While tire pricing remains strong, high raw material prices and potentially weak high-margin markets (North American and European replacement truck tire markets) could provide offsets.
both expecting exposure fairly french home limited partly robust safer thanks
We're expecting both of them to do well. The French carmakers are safer than the Germans, partly because they have limited U.S. exposure and partly thanks to a fairly robust home market.
consensus downside risk upside
We still see more downside than upside risk to 2007 consensus earnings.
aggressive believe benefit content continue cost diverse growth per safety
We continue to believe TRW should benefit from growth in safety content per vehicle, its diverse content profile, and aggressive cost management.
affected estimate lost million plants production remain
We estimate production at the affected plants is around 1 million units annually, indicating around 4,300 units of lost production for every day these plants remain down.
announced company further future given guided magnitude production quarter risk schedules surprised weak
We are not that surprised that the company guided down for the first quarter given their previously announced weak production schedules. However, we are surprised by the magnitude of the first-quarter and 2005 revision, which suggests the further risk to production schedules in future periods.
agree bargaining difficult
It should not be difficult to agree on the bargaining points.
aggressive continue cycle due favour ford gm product
That said, we continue to favour GM over Ford due to the former's more favourable 2006 product cycle and its more aggressive restructuring approach.
aggressive continue cycle due favor favorable ford gm product
That said, we continue to favor GM over Ford due to the former's more favorable 2006 product cycle and its more aggressive restructuring approach.
beyond company cost details extent favorable goals guidance limited material offered performance plant savings specific structural timing
Beyond guidance for favorable structural cost performance in 2006, and details on material cost savings goals, no specific guidance on the extent or cadence of structural cost savings was given. In addition, the company offered only limited details on the timing of plant actions.
assuming cent estimate hit lost note overtime plants production running variable via
Assuming $8,000 variable contribution margin/unit, we estimate this translates into an earnings-per-share hit of 1 cent for every day of lost production. However, we also note that much of this lost production could be made up via overtime production once the plants are up and running again.
expect ford gm notable pickup segment share
We expect GM to take notable share from Ford in the full-size pickup segment in 2006 and, particularly, in 2007.
billion cash corporate largely light robust sale
We see a $US2 billion cash injection as meaningful, even in light of GM's robust corporate liquidity. This sale was largely unanticipated by the market.
billion cash corporate largely light robust sale
We see a $2 billion cash injection as meaningful, even in light of GM's robust corporate liquidity. This sale was largely unanticipated by the market.