Himanshu Patel
Himanshu Patel
expect ford gm notable pickup segment share
We expect GM to take notable share from Ford in the full-size pickup segment in 2006 and, particularly, in 2007.
beat britain expecting fairly forecasts france guidance holding key markets reaffirm reasonably share upbeat
We are expecting PSA to beat their forecasts and to reaffirm fairly upbeat guidance for 2003. Their key markets of Britain and France are holding up well and their market share is reasonably healthy.
both expecting exposure fairly french home limited partly robust safer thanks
We're expecting both of them to do well. The French carmakers are safer than the Germans, partly because they have limited U.S. exposure and partly thanks to a fairly robust home market.
billion cash corporate largely light robust sale
We see a $US2 billion cash injection as meaningful, even in light of GM's robust corporate liquidity. This sale was largely unanticipated by the market.
billion cash corporate largely light robust sale
We see a $2 billion cash injection as meaningful, even in light of GM's robust corporate liquidity. This sale was largely unanticipated by the market.
beyond company cost details extent favorable goals guidance limited material offered performance plant savings specific structural timing
Beyond guidance for favorable structural cost performance in 2006, and details on material cost savings goals, no specific guidance on the extent or cadence of structural cost savings was given. In addition, the company offered only limited details on the timing of plant actions.
assuming cent estimate hit lost note overtime plants production running variable via
Assuming $8,000 variable contribution margin/unit, we estimate this translates into an earnings-per-share hit of 1 cent for every day of lost production. However, we also note that much of this lost production could be made up via overtime production once the plants are up and running again.
affected estimate lost million plants production remain
We estimate production at the affected plants is around 1 million units annually, indicating around 4,300 units of lost production for every day these plants remain down.
aggressive believe benefit content continue cost diverse growth per safety
We continue to believe TRW should benefit from growth in safety content per vehicle, its diverse content profile, and aggressive cost management.
announced company further future given guided magnitude production quarter risk schedules surprised weak
We are not that surprised that the company guided down for the first quarter given their previously announced weak production schedules. However, we are surprised by the magnitude of the first-quarter and 2005 revision, which suggests the further risk to production schedules in future periods.
avoiding further interest labor likely points resolution sale sticking
One of the likely sticking points in the pending sale of GMAC may well be resolution on Delphi, further emphasizing GM's interest in avoiding a labor dispute.
european high markets material prices pricing provide raw remains tire truck weak
While tire pricing remains strong, high raw material prices and potentially weak high-margin markets (North American and European replacement truck tire markets) could provide offsets.
accounting change concerns internal issues none raise thesis
While none of these issues are enough to change our thesis on GM, they do raise our concerns on the company's internal accounting controls.
admittedly ahead given performance potential recent reluctant weak
While fundamentals are admittedly weak, given the stock's weak recent performance, we are reluctant to get incrementally bearish, particularly ahead of a potential restructuring announcement.