Henry Willmore
Henry Willmore
Henry Wilmore is an American former basketball player who is most known for being a National Collegiate Athletic AssociationAll-American in 1972 while playing for the Michigan Wolverines. He played at the University of Michigan from 1970–71 through 1972–73, scored 1,654 points and grabbed 573 rebounds. A native of Manhattan, New York, Wilmore honed his skills and tenacity by playing streetball at well-known basketball courts, such as Rucker Park...
anxious believe bring current cycle data easing economic fed given however point soon
Given these considerations, we believe the Fed is anxious to bring the current easing cycle to an end and will do so as soon as the data point to some economic improvement, however modest.
case cut downward jumps picture point reinforce weaker
The thing that jumps out is the downward revisions on the data, which were pretty substantial and give you a much weaker picture than expected. I think these revisions reinforce the case for a (half-percentage) point cut at (Tuesday's Fed) meeting.
activity catching economic economy-and-economics leading months several sort strong weight
I wouldn't give this a lot of weight and say this is leading the economy. It's sort of catching up to what has been strong economic activity for several months now.
half headed next percent sometime
We're headed to around 6.5 percent sometime in the first half of next year.
market risk taken
Previously the market had taken out any risk of a second-quarter tightening by the Fed. With this statement, we see that's not a risk to be discounted.
change fiscal fortunate outlook policy quarter
I think we'll be fortunate if a quarter of that materializes. The change in the outlook for fiscal policy is remarkable.
date fairly fed focus further inflation job labor market slow stable
If inflation were to slow down some more, that would put off the date of any further tightening. But if it's stable or rising, the Fed will focus more on job numbers. We think the labor market indicators will be fairly strong.
change close contribute either fell fourth growth level matters percent quarter quite rapidly
What matters for GDP growth is not either the level of inventories or the change, but the change in the change. That's going to be quite positive. Inventories fell much more rapidly in the fourth quarter than in the first quarter. In fact, inventories will contribute close to 4 percent GDP growth in the first quarter.
cut fed improvement inspire might numbers recent start view weakness
We should start to see better numbers in the May data. If we don't see improvement, it would be much more worrisome than the recent weakness and might inspire the Fed to cut in June. My own view is that we will see better numbers.
good morning numbers
On balance, I'd say the numbers this morning were more good than bad.
attempt basically continue effect fed financial funds itself markets movements problem rate slow
The Fed's problem is that the fed funds rate itself has very little effect on the economy. We continue to see movements in financial markets that basically officiate the Fed's attempt to slow things down.
cuts effective holding job labor main reason
And the main reason for that will be the job cuts that enabled firms to do a more effective job of holding down labor costs.
carefully data fall investors momentum notice profits quarter second seeking trouble turn worth
It will be worth the trouble for investors seeking a turn in momentum to squint carefully at the data and notice that profits did not fall as much in the second quarter as they did in the first.quarter.
downside mainly
There's a lot of uncertainty about the outlook. There are a lot of risks, mainly downside risks.