Greg Valliere
Greg Valliere
argued argument based entire few flawed futility great past realistic security seen social
I have argued with great futility that this entire argument is based on a flawed premise. If you use a more realistic GDP assumption, based on what we've seen over the past few decades, Social Security won't go bankrupt.
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Things aren't as bad as Jason (Furman) said but they're not as good as the labor secretary said, ... The markets clearly were expecting a better number than 96,000. You've got to wonder ... are corporations sending us a signal that the underlying economy is not as good as people thought?
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The wording of the statement will be very significant ? does it make it clear that the Fed is prepared to do more. It will be an important clue about what we might get going forward.
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Right now the markets are viewing this as if it's going to be quick and painless.
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Even though there's a lot of angst over the budget, a cut of $56 billion over five years, or $40 billion in spending cuts over five years, is pretty mild ? it's almost a rounding error.
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Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked. They felt this could give Microsoft an opening in the appeals process to claim, 'We didn't get due process, this judge was too impetuous, he moved too quickly.' Considering how great a job Jackson has done, for him to give Microsoft an opening at this late date was a little surprising.
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Even people who don't like Microsoft we talked to late yesterday were shocked,
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You have to say that it could be a hollow victory, a pyrrhic victory, for the eventual winner if you will. We had a situation back in 1876, I'm told, where Rutherford B. Hayes won, but he was called Ruther 'fraud' B. Hayes for his whole term, and I think there's going to be a lot of sniping at the eventual winner as someone perhaps who won a tainted election,
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We should have economic growth of more than 3 percent this quarter. I think the Fed is concerned about a possible housing bubble and about us getting close to full employment. I think this is one of the rare occasions were the market has it wrong.
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That's the question, certainly, for all our clients on Wall Street. They're resigned to Clinton getting re-elected, but the real issue is if it's not by 10 points, but by 18 or 19 -- if it's the latter, then I think certainly the House will go Democratic, ... The Senate is a tougher case to make, but in a blow out, even the Senate could go.
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My bottom line is that this not catastrophic for the Bush agenda,
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I think political strategies now are in agreement that the public doesn't want a big huge change on anything, whether its health care or the contract with the gold standard.
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I think Greenspan realizes that if he doesn't move tomorrow, he may have to do 50 basis points at the end of January, which could look panicky.
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I think Greenspan, last Thursday, really sent a signal that he wants 50 basis points, ... By saying that the GDP (gross domestic product) growth is close to zero, he certainly encouraged the belief that we get half a point.