Greg Gibbs
Greg Gibbs
australian built head rate support week
Rate speculation this week has built up a head of steam. This will support the Australian dollar.
against europe fall hikes large market next prevent quarter rate thinking
Against that, the market has started thinking about rate hikes in Europe in the first quarter of next year. That is going to prevent a large fall in the euro.
australian continue interest rate support
Interest rate expectations will continue to support the Australian dollar.
against currency euro hike markets middle next pricing rate year
The currency and rate futures markets are pricing in a rate hike by year-end and two by the middle of next year and this is why the euro has strengthened, especially against the yen.
basis currently economic hikes market numbers rate strong toward year
The market is currently factoring in rate hikes toward the end of the year of as much as 50 basis points. That's about right, considering the kind of strong economic numbers we have got out of Japan.
chatter impending last months policy rally sharp six week
The sharp rally in the yen last week may not last. There is chatter about an impending policy tightening by the BOJ, but this is still around six months away at least.
currency fallen negative number quite surprised
This number is quite a shock. This is a short-term negative for the currency and I'm surprised it hasn't fallen further.
based dollar downside economy further greater month next potential rapidly risks slow upside zealand
Based on our sense of positioning, excessively bearish sentiment, and risks that the economy does not slow as rapidly as hoped, we see greater upside potential for New Zealand dollar than further downside in the next month or two.
calming comments expecting market maybe obviously prepared
Obviously the market was well prepared for a change. Maybe the market is expecting some more calming comments from Fukui.
appears bonds china coming flag foreign frequently global growth investment japan makers policy regard rising risk trust volumes
Much of this liquidity appears to be coming from China and increasingly Japan where investment trust growth is supplying significant volumes to foreign bonds with little regard to the rising global imbalances that policy makers frequently flag as a risk to the global economy.
bottom couple days large last move range shift testing
There is some kind of a shift under way, with the large move over the last couple of days testing the bottom of its range for the last year.
australian bullish difficult dollar quite rising
It's quite difficult to get bullish on the Australian dollar when the U.S. dollar is rising on interest-rate differentials.
energy trading
It's trading on the back of the energy sector.
associated australian behavior cyclical global greater growth strong stronger
Strong cyclical equities are often associated with greater global growth confidence, risk-seeking behavior and a stronger Australian dollar.