Greg Gibbs
Greg Gibbs
dollar grind higher might quiet states united united-states
The U.S. dollar might grind a little higher as the United States comes back from a long weekend. But I think it is going to be a quiet week.
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Recovering equities and still overall strong commodity markets suggests that there is little broad-based concern that central bank policy tightening will curtail global economic growth and there is still adequate global liquidity chasing higher risk assets and capping risk premiums,
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The hopes were not high for a clear winner based on polls last week, but the poor showing of the CDU suggests the German people were against further pro-business reforms.
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The sharp rally in the yen last week may not last. There is chatter about an impending policy tightening by the BOJ, but this is still around six months away at least.
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Rate speculation this week has built up a head of steam. This will support the Australian dollar.
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This number is quite a shock. This is a short-term negative for the currency and I'm surprised it hasn't fallen further.
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Based on our sense of positioning, excessively bearish sentiment, and risks that the economy does not slow as rapidly as hoped, we see greater upside potential for New Zealand dollar than further downside in the next month or two.
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Obviously the market was well prepared for a change. Maybe the market is expecting some more calming comments from Fukui.
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Much of this liquidity appears to be coming from China and increasingly Japan where investment trust growth is supplying significant volumes to foreign bonds with little regard to the rising global imbalances that policy makers frequently flag as a risk to the global economy.
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There is some kind of a shift under way, with the large move over the last couple of days testing the bottom of its range for the last year.
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It's quite difficult to get bullish on the Australian dollar when the U.S. dollar is rising on interest-rate differentials.
energy trading
It's trading on the back of the energy sector.
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Strong cyclical equities are often associated with greater global growth confidence, risk-seeking behavior and a stronger Australian dollar.
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The Australian dollar has underperformed because there is a feeling it's past its best days in terms of a high-yielding currency.