Frederick Moran
Frederick Moran
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You are seeing a bit of a stalling in the growth of the dial-up market. It is still growing, but at a much less vigorous pace than last year. Subscribers are beginning to convert over to DSL, or cable modems, and that's eating into some of the incremental growth of the existing Internet Service Providers (ISPs). But I think the ISPs have a real opportunity to convert their existing dial-up subscribers into broadband subscribers. In fact, they have a better opportunity than any other players out there; but, in order to recapture Wall Street attention, they have to begin to make that happen in a meaningful fashion,
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This puts competitive pressure on the likes of Disney, NBC and Fox Television. These other players will have to step up, reevaluate, see what kind of assets they are missing in their specific platform and address it as quickly as possible.
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AOL, ... is the Internet play out there. It is the only fully integrated Internet player in the space. It basically has multi-brands across different areas of the Internet. And their flagship AOL Internet service continues to show very, very powerful subscriber growth.
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With cable stock prices under pressure, business slightly less robust than previously thought, and market concerns about debt loads, now might not be the ideal time for additional mergers,
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We saw real upside surprise in the revenue number, and I think that will help the stock. The second-quarter report shows that despite the seasonality of the Web business, there is no slowdown at all in the revenue growth rate.
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Now Wall Street has turned more cautious. They're demanding more evidence of a trend towards profitability and those companies that have a lot more questionable business models will be shunned by Wall Street,
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It does make sense to help focus investors. Sumner Redstone thought that the difference between the two pieces was holding back Viacom's valuation.
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Open access is the biggest issue. The other one, we think, is interoperability for instant messenger and ICQ. The ability for other ISPs to have instant messaging with, and that is technologically resolvable at some point in the not too distant future and AOL has pledged that they will move towards making that happen. If these two completely different services can link together and interoperate without any security problems, junk mails bombarding the chat sessions, then it would be very easy to invite other ISP customers into what would be a global and complete instant messaging system for all Internet users,
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Right now neither stock reflects merger synergies. In fact, Time Warner, although it's getting taken over by AOL, reflects no takeover premium. We think as the deal comes together and they uncover some new business opportunities and synergies, they will drive valuation. I think AOL trades like a media company and in a way it really doesn't trade like an Internet company anymore. So either it's an undervalued media company relative to its growth prospects or it's a very cheap Internet company.
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It also comes on the heals of AOL-Time Warner and the Terra Networks merger with Lycos, and shows that the Internet and media landscape is getting increasingly competitive, requiring more consolidation.
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Unless this director knows something that the rest of us don't, I just find his comments inflammatory in an effort to express his personal anger as opposed to anything that could be materially wrong with how the business is being run.
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Having faced no significant competition so far, Audible has not been able to sustain a profit despite reasonably good revenue and subscriber trends, ... could much more efficiently build and launch their own sites.
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Yesterday was very frightening. It felt like maybe the bubble was bursting on the Internet stocks. I'm not sure that that's truly the case, but clearly investors are scared right now and they're panicking a little bit.
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The pressure is on the entertainment companies more than anyone else, ... They either need to integrate their Internet capabilities much more rapidly or get left in the dirt.