Frank Nothaft
Frank Nothaft
affordable coming continue expect housing low market mortgage percent present rate rates remaining strong
With the unemployment rate at a low of 4.3 percent and mortgage rates remaining at present affordable levels, we expect the housing market to continue to be strong into the coming months.
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Mortgage rates have been under 7 percent for the past eight weeks,
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Over the last couple of years, we've seen many markets with strong home value appreciation. They're up at a considerable pace in many markets across the country, particularly from New England all the way down to Washington, D.C., ... Home values are up in D.C., for example, by over 10 percent over the past year. That means families have built up home equity.
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There was no news this week that would drive mortgage rates in one direction or the other. Therefore, mortgage rates didn't have much reason to move a lot, staying below 7 percent for the second week running.
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As a matter of fact, housing directly contributed to real GDP growth of 19 percent in the first quarter of the year and 23 percent in the second quarter. To put this in perspective, this would compare to 17 percent of real GDP growth over all of 2004.
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At this time last year, our forecast called for interest rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages to exceed six percent by this time this year,
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For the past six months, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates have hovered between 6.75 percent and 7.25 percent. We continue to see a very low mortgage rate environment, and this has played a key role in the high level of housing construction we have witnessed over the last two quarters.
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The strength in employment growth and an unexpected jump in consumer credit in January helped push mortgage rates a little higher this week. While long-term interest rates are at the highest level since May of 1998, they are still very affordable, particularly when compared to the 1970s and 1980s.
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Both existing home sales in June and housing starts in July took a breather, dropping to somewhat more sustainable levels of activity,
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Bond yields have been creeping up on an almost daily basis since the beginning of October, pushing mortgage rates up as they go, ... Inflation remains low, however, and we expect that to continue into 2004 and beyond. And as long as it does, we won't see mortgage rates rising very dramatically.
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As the economy continues to show signs that the recession is ending, the housing market continues to expand thanks, in large part, to current low mortgage rates. And as long as inflation is not an issue in the economy, lending rates should remain around 7 percent.
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Current record breaking low mortgage rates are keeping demand for housing strong, even as the overall economy stumbles sluggishly into the first part of the new year.
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Currently the market is focusing on an anticipated economic recovery within the next six months. That focus put some upward pressure on mortgage rates this week, causing them to rise. There remains good volatility though, due to market speculation over exactly when and how strong the rebound will be.
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With mortgage rates low and consumer confidence high, Freddie Mac economists expect the housing market to remain strong in the months ahead.