Ethan Harris

Ethan Harris
aggregate along bias break consumer demand expect fed few growth inflation leave prices rates remains signs statements upside vote
With few signs that consumer prices are about to break to the upside ... along with signs that aggregate demand remains robust, we expect the Fed will not only vote to keep rates constant, but will leave the growth and inflation bias statements unchanged.
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These continued claims are a sign the unemployment rate is still on an upward trajectory. There are still a lot of people out of work out there.
again begins believe continue ease fed forced hike hiking rate until worry
We now believe that the first Fed rate hike will not come until December, and we continue to worry the Fed may be forced to ease again before it begins hiking rates,
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We've gone from a period where there was a reasonable chance the Fed might cut rates just four months ago to one in which the Fed is very much comfortably just sitting on hold for now.
above change fed level means might next patient percentage plenty point rate room statement threaten wiggle
Even with this dip, the unemployment rate is still about a percentage point above the level where it might threaten inflation. That means there's plenty of wiggle room for the Fed on policy. They're going to be patient and not change the wording of their statement next week.
best cuts economy maintain move promise quarter rate remains
The best tack is to move by a quarter point, with the promise that there will be more cuts to come if the economy remains weak. You can't maintain that promise with big bulky rate cuts.
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You've had obviously a rise in gasoline prices, which is the visible price in the economy, ... There's (also) a tendency of the public to look at the unemployment rate that actually rose in March, while Wall Street looks at payrolls (which showed a large jump in the number of people working.)
basis chairman force open point rate term
You don't want to force the new chairman to open his term by having to make a a 50 basis point rate hike.
adjusted bring consumer impact rates rising slowing spending tremendous
Rising rates could have a tremendous impact on slowing consumer spending. Consumer spending has been about 6 percent, when adjusted for inflation. Rising rates could bring it down to 2 or 3 percent.
economy except fed future hike learned near policy rates ready
In total, we learned very little about the future of the economy or Fed policy except that the Fed is not ready to hike rates in the very near future.
coming growth job point rate rise sure
If job growth is just 50,000 a month, you can be sure that the unemployment rate is going to rise at some point in the coming months.
christmas cut rate shapes wait
They'll wait to see how Christmas shapes up, and if it's weak, they'll give another rate cut in January.
closely dictionary figure general hold keeping keeps language less rates sounds study though tone
They keep fiddling with the language, and the general tone of the directive keeps getting a little less dovish. Being 'patient' sounds a little less like they're keeping rates on hold than a 'considerable period' -- though you'd need to study a dictionary closely to figure that out.
early interest rates recovery rising talking
By talking about interest rates rising again, you can precipitate them rising too early in a recovery -- that's why he shouldn't be talking about it.