Elisabeth Denison
Elisabeth Denison
consumer looking partly quarter second start strong weather
We had a strong start to the year, partly weather and consumer related, and now we're getting indications for the second quarter and they're looking moderate.
people starting weather winter worry
I think people are starting to worry about winter heating bills, especially now the weather is starting to turn.
consumer good momentum news terms
It did come in stronger, so that's probably good news in terms of consumer momentum as we go into the new year.
definitely direction further pointing rate
It definitely is pointing in the direction of further rate hikes.
close fourth growth nice push rebound
What it will do is push up first-quarter growth probably close to 5.0 percent, so a nice rebound from the fourth quarter.
certainly modest panic pressure rates reason resources
We've got tightening resources but modest ... pressure on wages. So no reason to panic for the Fed, but certainly more reason for them to take rates a little higher.
chain ending february might sales saturday snow store storms warm week
It was a warm month, no snow storms or anything like that. In fact, we might see some give-back in February because we already see the first chain store sales for the week ending Saturday were down because of the snow storm.
against below expect fed full hike inflation lean level resolve slightly strengthen thinking
It (the jobless rate) is probably at or slightly below the level the Fed is thinking is full employment, so it will strengthen their resolve to lean against inflation pressures. We expect another quarter-point hike in March.
data definitely improving information labor market payroll point settling small
It's a very small decline. It's definitely settling in a downtrend and all the information from the surveys and from that kind of data point to the labor market stabilizing and improving and we should see that in the payroll numbers.
data definitely improving information labor market payroll point settling small
It's a very small decline, ... It's definitely settling in a downtrend and all the information from the surveys and from that kind of data point to the labor market stabilizing and improving and we should see that in the payroll numbers.
employment labor people question shows
A lot of it has to do with the labor market, the employment question is where it shows up. People are disenchanted with employment growth.
against believe economic inflation lean momentum pressures rate remains
As long as the economic momentum remains strong, we believe they will still lean against inflation pressures with another rate hike.
fourth quarter theme
The big theme in the fourth quarter is going to be consumption spending, that is the real driver.
definitely direction domestic eye fed further pace pointing prices rate worried
This is something the Fed is going to keep an eye on as it's domestic prices that they're worried about, the domestic pace of activity, and it definitely is pointing in the direction of further rate hikes.