Edward Meir
Edward Meir
amount cannot current finding growing held hostage investment justify markets money several tight
While fundamentals are tight in several of the metals, they cannot justify current valuations. Markets are, instead, held hostage by the growing amount of investment and speculative money out there that is increasingly finding its way into commodities.
among bulls copper rally surprised
The copper rally has surprised us all, even the die-hard bulls among us.
There is some understandable nervousness about today's copper-stock increase.
cannot further gains inventory later numbers rule
We cannot rule out further gains later in the week, particularly if (DOE) inventory numbers surprise.
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Commodities seem to be a rather popular alternative (to bonds, equities and the dollar) for funds searching for a trend.
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As long as the prospect of sanctioning 4 million barrels per day of Iranian oil is out there, the Iranian situation, in our view, will be the front and center issue that will command market attention.
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Sometimes one comes across an especially odd trading day when nothing much makes sense. Yesterday's session was a case in point, with the action in the natural gas complex being particularly puzzling.
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The strike in Nigeria, if it does come to pass, will have a limited price impact and could very well follow June's pattern, where a sharp spike after the strike announcement was followed almost immediately by sizeable selling,
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More likely, it was continued nervousness about gasoline supplies and possible commercial buying on the back of healthy crack spreads.
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New money may not enter the markets with the same vigor as has been the case in the past, especially if growth in the U.S. shows signs of slowing on the back of steadily rising interest rates.
looks test
A test of $6,000 now looks like it is around the corner.
behind hard pinpoint price reasons
It's hard to pinpoint what the reasons behind yesterday's price surge were.
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It remains to be seen whether this latest really will be upstaged by this week's EIA inventory reports. We think not; the markets are grappling with three simultaneous geopolitical hotspots right now, increasing the odds that at least one -- if not all three -- of these situations will override the potentially bearish consequence of an inventory increase.
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The Nigerian problem, it seems, is transforming itself from a pesky, on-again, off-again, bottleneck to one with more staying power.