Drew Peck
Drew Peck
bit consider expecting fairly high huge investors last light might problem result saw stock suspect upside weakness
In light of the huge upside we saw last quarter, I think a lot of investors might have been expecting a little bit better. That may be a nagging problem when you consider that the stock was discounting fairly high expectations already. I suspect there could be some weakness as a result of that.
disaster good rally
It's not a disaster. But it's just not good enough to rally the stock.
agreement believe emerge feeling guess issues question quite
I'm not only in agreement, I've been feeling for quite a while that these issues are going to emerge pretty soon. I guess the only question I have is, if everything that Kumar described is true, which frankly, I believe it is, then why does he still have a 'buy' on the stock?
absolute basically came line results
In an absolute sense, the results were good. But I think there may be some disappointment over revenue, which came in basically in line with expectations.
cents company earning expensive maybe stock upside
There's no more upside coming. So we're not going to see more than 65, maybe 70 cents out of this company for the whole year. This is a very expensive stock to be earning 65 or 70 cents.
business half midst next prices pricing reasonably stable
Meanwhile, that's been in the midst of reasonably stable pricing in the processor business and I think that the stable pricing is about to come to an end. By the end of this year, we're going to see sharply eroding prices as we get into the first half of next year.
academic gravitate highest investors names point reality
But that's probably too academic a point of view. The reality is that investors, especially short-term investors and day traders, all gravitate to the most beaten-up names because that's where they get the highest bounce.
benefits both concerns december disappear february focused issue january mostly next quarter start third year
But both of those benefits are going to disappear by December and then January and February are going to be very, very tough. I don't have an issue for Intel's third quarter, which is mostly over. My concerns are mostly focused on the first quarter of next year -- that's when things are going to start getting derailed.
business cash company eggs flow pieces point remaining selling subsidize
Obviously, this company is having big problems. It's cash flow negative. They are now at the point where they are selling off pieces of their business to subsidize the remaining piece. All their eggs are in one basket.
basically flat gross guidance surprise upside
They had an upside surprise in gross margins, but their guidance for 2002 is basically flat from here.
believe commentary grim hang hat numbers rather themselves
The numbers themselves tell a pretty grim story, so if you're going to hang your hat on this, you have to believe the qualitative commentary rather than the quantitative information.
business comments hinge
A lot is going to hinge on how much credibility there is in the comments ... that the microprocessor business has stabilized.
built graphics interested pcs people performance problem selling whose
Integrating graphics with the processor compromises performance of the graphics. The problem isn't that people aren't interested in the low-end PCs selling at $600, it's that people aren't interested in processors whose performance is compromised because the graphics is built in.
demand masked period problem shortage strong surplus time turn
But ironically, this is going to turn the shortage into a surplus in a very short period of time. This problem has also been masked by seasonal demand for processors, which is very strong at this time of the year.