Drew Matus
Drew Matus
factory fourth great months orders quarter report shows time
The factory orders report shows that the first two months of the fourth quarter were not especially a great time for manufacturers.
economists margins oil picking prices risk squeeze
The risk is that there's something that economists aren't picking up. As oil prices go higher, firms see margins compress and that could put a squeeze on hiring.
fed ferguson looking role sure top
Ferguson is very operationally oriented. I think that's a role the Fed needs, but I'm not sure that's what administration is looking to put into the top spot.
continued economy employment expand move near orders strength
Between the move in the employment index and continued strength in new orders it suggests that the economy should continue to expand in the near term.
labor market plenty point room sign
There's no sign of inflation, and the labor market is still weak. There's still plenty of room from the Fed's point of view.
actual bit developed economy fed few hike income inflation last payroll pressure rate strong
I think if you look at the way the U.S. economy has developed over the last few months, you still have strong payroll growth, you've got a little bit of inflation pressure and you have very strong income growth. So the actual economy is not all that different from when the Fed started its rate hike cycle.
core growth inflation though
Growth is strong. Inflation is making them a little nervous, even though they reiterate that core inflation and long-term inflation expectations are contained.
benign bring fed feeling inflation mean meeting next people pervasive talks
If we get more inflationary data, that could bring people back to their senses. Just because the Fed talks about inflation in a benign way one meeting doesn't mean that feeling will be pervasive at the next meeting.
biggest concern default everybody people treasury understand
Nobody's going to default in the U.S. Treasury market. The biggest concern I have is that not everybody understands that, and some people understand it better than others.
growth income labor market outlook overall remain strong
With income growth strong and the labor market set to tighten through 2006, the overall growth outlook should remain robust.
fed position puts raising
It puts the Fed in a position they probably don't want to be in, but they'll have to keep raising rates.
aspects becomes bond card fed focus growth higher market oil rallying rather thinks wild
The big wild card becomes what the Fed does about it. That's why the bond market is rallying -- rather than concentrate on the inflationary aspects of higher oil prices, the market thinks the Fed will focus on the growth aspects.
basically confidence consumer cut ensure expecting markets mention numbers spending
We're expecting him to mention consumer confidence numbers and consumer spending numbers and to come out and say we need to ensure that consumer confidence is bolstered. We're expecting him to come out and basically let the markets know to expect a cut in March.
beginning concern core expressed happen hear increases inflation last percent year
We're right where they want us to be -- between 2 and 2.5 percent increases in the core CPI. But last year there was more inflation than they were anticipating at the beginning of the year, and the concern you hear being expressed is that they don't want that to happen again.