David Trone
David Trone
becoming bit industry online
The online brokerage industry is becoming a bit of an oligopoly.
negative product results strength third
On a year-over-year basis, Lehman's results are outstanding, while the negative sequential comparisons are a product of the strength of the 2005 third quarter.
assets discover improve improved last needs value
It's in last place with no real assets to improve their position. Discover desperately needs to have an improved value proposition for the cardholders. That's where it all begins.
account adds asset both strong terms trading
This was a very strong report, both in terms of asset flows, account adds and trading activity.
financial incentives pushing time
The transaction makes a lot of sense strategically at a time when U.S. regulators are frowning upon financial incentives to brokers for pushing in-house funds.
quarter quarters results time
This is the first quarter in a long time where you will see year-over-year comparisons that are negative. And we'll probably see results for most of the quarters in 2005 being down on a year-over-year basis.
advisory easily estimate firm highest million move places prior quarter revenue
Our estimate of $340 million in advisory revenue easily places the quarter as the highest for the firm post-bubble, and should move 2005 advisory revenues about 28% over the prior year.
believe businesses compared core higher improvement income investment previous quarter reflecting sensitive slightly wealth
We believe core income should be slightly higher in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter, excluding one-time charges, reflecting improvement in capital-markets sensitive businesses (trading, investment banking, and wealth management).
although asset banks consumer expensive finance given likely management
Asset management acquisitions are safer, in our view, given the predictability of earnings, although they will likely be more expensive than banks or consumer finance companies.
billions close dollars earned last negative reasonable record several track trading
Its track record is outstanding, they've earned tens of billions of dollars over the last several years and they've never come close to having a negative trading line. I'd say that's reasonable risk-reward.
assume double firm likely revenue
It's not likely a firm would double its revenue in a sequential comparison. One should assume that some of that's proprietary trading.
coming position power recent
Fink is coming from a position of power because of his recent success.
deal earnings estimate few impact next seems ultimate
Financially, the deal seems to be of little impact. We estimate ultimate earnings impact as flattish for Merrill over the next few years.
begins both company core effect expenses partial quarter realize result revenue rise
The partial quarter effect of the two acquisitions should result in a 17% sequential revenue lift, while core expenses (excluding any one-time restructuring charges) should rise about 23%, as the company only begins to realize both expense and revenue synergies.