David Shulman
David Shulman
David Shulmanwas an American lexicographer and cryptographer...
cheap compared last next normally people previous winners
Normally the last cycle's winners don't win in the next cycle. But people want to play them because they look cheap compared to the previous boom.
correction next
My sense is the next correction will be serious.
act bond bonds following reasonably stocks
Near-term, I think stocks probably will act reasonably well following the bond market. As long as bonds act well, stocks will act well.
amount declines soft
Make no mistake. This is a soft landing. Typically, peak-to-trough declines amount to 50 percent.
astounding generate growth high labor level market wage
What's astounding is that we've got high growth without inflation, ... there is a level of labor market tightness that will generate wage inflation.
balloon blowing bond bubble decided fed green last light market month raise staying
We got a green light last month when the Fed decided not to raise rates, then we got another green light when the bond market rallied last Friday, ... The balloon is still blowing up. I'm staying defensive. I still say the bubble is going to break. I just don't know when.
bond buying fed green last light market next rather selling six terms thinking three week weeks
We got a green light from the Fed last week and we got a green light from the bond market in Thursday. My sense is that over the next three to six weeks the market is going higher. But I would be thinking more in terms of selling rather than buying here.
expect far volatile
Expect 2006 to be far more volatile than 2005.
associated example recession
For example, 1970, 1974, 1982, 1990 and 2002 were recession years and 1966, 1986 and 1994 were associated with mid-cycle slowdowns.
historical market seems stage
We're at the stage of the market where it seems to be detaching from historical fundamentals.
bubble signature
We were a bubble team; this was a signature win. Hopefully, we'll be able to get in.
bit bond market movement
I think the movement in the bond market is probably short-term but it still probably has a little bit to go.
accident bad best light past
It is no accident that some of the best years economically over the past 45 years have been the presidential years of 1964, 1968, 1972, 1984, 1988, 1996 and 2000. Even 2004 wasn't all that bad in the light of history.
minor
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