David Seiders
David Seiders
balanced buyers market switching
We are switching from a red-hot sellers' market to a market that is better balanced between buyers and sellers.
delighted housing market obviously tells
I was obviously delighted to see this rebound. I think what it tells us is that the housing market is still fundamentally strong.
alignment depends economy happens interest market moving rate rates
Now what happens to the market depends on the interest rate structure. Long rates have been better than expected, but I think we can see them rising, moving into alignment with what's going on with the economy and with short-term rates.
best certainly cooling drop expect healthy housing market months pace percent quite reason recent sales second strong third throughout year
While new-home sales have been quite strong throughout 2005, we see a cooling of the market to a healthy and more sustainable pace in the months ahead, as substantiated by recent surveys of our builders. For 2006, we expect to see a 6 percent to 7 percent drop in sales, but certainly no reason for alarm. This would make 2006 the second or third best year in housing history.
builders demand incentives market marking rolling sales sort starts
The big builders are marking down their outlooks for 2006 and rolling out some sales incentives -- the sort of things we see when the market starts to weaken on the demand side.
behind driving factor forward housing key market move numbers record strong weather winter
The warmest winter weather on record is what is driving a lot of this. I think that is the key factor behind this very strong surge in housing market activity, and as we move forward I think we're going to see these numbers come back down a lot.
biggest builder came drop evidence housing market peaked since somewhere survey third
There is now accumulating evidence that the housing market peaked somewhere in the third quarter. Our survey of builder confidence, which came out yesterday, was down a lot. . . . It was the biggest drop since the first survey after 9/11.
activity classic conditions cyclical market process rather retreat spiral
The retreat in housing-market activity that's now under way amounts to a simmering-down process from unsustainable market conditions in 2005, rather than a classic cyclical contraction that could spiral down for some time.
definitely good housing market sign
This is definitely a good sign that the housing market is stabilizing.
begin conclude early evidence exuberance fed found growing hit housing losing mark market period seeking
The housing market is seeking out a peak. While it is still too early to conclude that it has found one, there is growing evidence that the Fed has started to hit its mark and housing will begin losing some of its exuberance in the period ahead.
bolster continues exhibit favorable household housing income job market mortgage ongoing overall remain strength strong
All the fundamentals remain in place, and the overall housing market continues to exhibit ongoing strength. Favorable mortgage rates, as well as strong household income and job growth, continue to bolster housing demand.
bolster builders buyers continue decline hold housing key limit losing major market markets measures momentum move prices reason reasons
The key reason the market is losing momentum is a major decline in housing affordability measures as prices continue to move up aggressively in many, many markets around the country. There are reasons for the builders to be doing things to bolster demand, hold buyers in and limit cancellations, and I think that's what's going on out there.
beginning cooling housing starts
We see a flattening of housing starts and the beginning of a cooling process.
component economy element engine expecting growth move negative neutral next strong year
I've been expecting the housing-production component of GDP to move from a strong growth engine to a neutral or negative element in the U.S. economy over the next year and a half.