David Resler
David Resler
cooling early fewer loans people qualify sales signs
It's the early signs of some cooling in this super-heated market. Fewer people qualify for loans and sales at these prices.
cut few numbers spending
It will take away from discretionary spending. It may not show up in the numbers for a few months, but it probably will cut into discretionary spending in the first part of this year.
continue displaced employment extra few growth job likely months people
We're going to get some extra employment growth as people displaced by the hurricanes find their way back into the job market, and that's likely to continue in the first few months of this year.
apart broad categories changed concern few inflation needs prices
I don't think there needs to be much concern about inflation right now. Apart from energy, very few of the broad categories of prices have changed much in their direction.
few money moved past price stock supply weakness
In the past few years, money supply has moved inversely with stock price movements, and that's probably where the weakness has come from.
benefits costs increase pressure sign wage
The smaller-than-expected increase in benefits is a sign of things to come. We're not going to see much pressure on wage costs in the foreseeable future.
income numbers people planning
People are still planning to spend, and today's income numbers tell us that they have the wherewithal to do so.
attitudes commit concerned consumer fact future income louder people seem speaks unwilling
People don't seem to be so concerned that they're unwilling to commit future income to such purchases. The fact that people are willing to do that speaks much louder about consumer attitudes than what they tell some survey.
both camps cling couple data past
Both camps will cling to their arguments for a couple more months. But the answer's not going to come from monthly data -- those are still too much in the past to be much help.
employment holidays job large market swings time
Very large swings in seasonal employment during and after the holidays typify the job market at this time of the year.
affect consumer gas higher prices
We know that higher gas prices affect consumer sentiment.
bit capital ended front good investment last momentum optimistic view year
We ended last year with a good bit more momentum on the capital investment front than we thought. We have an optimistic view about this year as a whole.
activity businesses half imagine improvement lean left numbers pointing satisfy second toward
Today's numbers are pointing toward a considerable improvement in manufacturing activity in the second half of the year. Inventories are so lean that I can't imagine businesses have enough left to satisfy much of the demand. There's got to be more production.
bad lasts money people supply
Nevertheless, money supply contractions are often harbingers of bad times ahead, and if this lasts much longer, people will get more concerned.