David Nabarro
David Nabarro
Dr. David Nabarrois a medical doctor who is organising the United Nations' response to Ebola...
attention bird careful flu locations needs possible ready shift virus wild
There has been a shift in the susceptibility of wild fowl to H5N1. That's something that needs very careful attention if we're going to be ready for possible introduction of the bird flu virus in other locations through wild fowl.
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We cannot have a vaccine against a pandemic virus until the pandemic virus appears.
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The pace of fatalities appears to have fallen off quickly. But it is as yet unclear whether this is because the virus has modified or Turkey's approach has been successful.
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If there is delay in getting culling teams out, delay in any part of the chain, even weeks, that could have great implications for the virus to spread.
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The virus now has very definitely found its way into the African subcontinent, and we have a different situation that has emerged with even more H5N1 in our world.
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There is too much H5N1 virus in very close contact with humans in this region. We need, in a painstaking and careful way, to reduce the opportunities for this virus to be jumping across into the human population. That will in turn reduce the likelihood of a major pandemic.
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It simply is telling us that the virus may be changing the way it interacts with humans. It does not tell us that the risk of a mutation that causes the pandemic is increasing or decreasing.
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To scale up vet services is a pretty tall order. They haven't had the level of investment they should have had during the last three or four decades. And you can't suddenly turn a switch to get vet services working well. You have got to train the vets. You have to build the systems.
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We expect the next influenza pandemic to come at any time now.
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Unfortunately I can't give you any precise information as to when the mutation of H5N1 to a form that can be transmitted between humans will actually take place.
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We viewed this as the beginning. I'm not for a minute suggesting that the amounts of money we are talking about at the Beijing meet are all that's going to be needed.
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The real issue will be how the money is going to be managed and how we are going to coordinate.
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We did discuss in China as well the importance of trying to restrict movements of chickens from areas that are infected, including across borders.
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The $1.9 billion shows that the world cares greatly about the issues we face and that governments want to be sure that there is enough cash available to do everything they have to do to get the current epidemic of bird flu under control and make sure that we can prepare for a human pandemic.