David Lereah
David Lereah
David Lereah is the President of Reecon Advisors, Inc., a real estate advisory and information company located in the Washington, DC area. Lereah was previously an Executive Vice President at Move, Inc. and before that, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors. Lereah served as the NAR's spokesman on economic forecasts, interest rates, home sales, mortgage rates, as well as other policy issues and trends affecting the United States real estate industry. Lereah was also the Chief Economist for...
behavior commercial designed early economic estate major market modeling points provide relationship signals tool trends turning
Modeling a relationship between economic and commercial market indicators, as well as market trends and sentiment, will provide us with a new tool in assessing market behavior in the major commercial real estate sectors. It is being designed as an index to provide early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns in commercial real estate activity.
causing demand five interest last market met modest mortgage rates rise
A lot of demand has been met over the last five years, and a modest rise in mortgage interest rates is causing some market cooling.
coming continues cooling economy expect job markets pick though worry
Some of the cooling is coming from non-boom markets such as Detroit, where there are job problems. I do worry about those markets if the economy continues to slow, though we do expect the economy to pick up in the first quarter.
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The underlying fundamentals of the housing market are solid and sales will stay historically strong, but they will trend modestly down from current peaks. Masked by the data are early signs that housing is starting to wind down from a boom and will transition into an expansion - in other words, a soft landing.
balance buyers entering gains good high homes market news normal period result simple supply
These historically high home-price gains are the simple result of more buyers than sellers in the market. The good news is that the supply of homes on the market has been trending up and we are entering a period of a more normal balance in supply and demand.
home housing market means modest process
A modest slowdown in home sales, coupled with improvements in the housing inventory, means the market is in the process of normalization.
brakes hot tapping
The slowdown amounts to a tapping of the brakes on a hot market.
buyer census changed data definition determine examining homes investment larger mostly number second share shift toward vacation
Our definition of second homes has changed with the buyer shift toward investment property, ... In examining Census data to determine the number of investment units, we see that second homes are a much larger share than the conventional mind-set of them being mostly vacation homes.
expected sooner three
We got to 6.6 sooner than I expected. I hadn't expected that for two or three months.
above afford available bid buffer buy buyers compete cost country debt family home low means natural pressure prices purchase seeing service typical
With more buyers than sellers nationally, what we're seeing is a natural pressure on home prices as buyers compete to bid on available properties. Fortunately, the historically low cost of debt service on a home purchase means that we have a comfortable buffer in most of the country because the typical family can afford to buy a home well above the median price.
current home lower sales sustained
Right now, home sales are a little lower than projected, but they can be sustained around current levels.
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Since April we've experienced three out of the four strongest months on record for existing-home sales, and August was the sixth highest. We're at a more sustainable level now, but long-term there should be some additional easing toward the end of the year. In fact, the August sales pace is close to what we project for total sales this year.
five interest last months mortgage rates since year
Since 1971 there have been only five months when mortgage interest rates were lower, and all of those have been during the last year and a half.
appreciation good highest home interest level modest mortgage news quarter rates record sales seen since slowing strong sustained third
Mortgage interest rates were at the highest level since the third quarter of 2003. At the same time, we've seen strong double-digit appreciation in home prices, so a modest slowing from record sales was to be expected. The good news is that home sales are being sustained at historically high levels.